# Colombia Election 1st Round

> Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 5-10% leads at 29%, runner-up 26% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 38 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colombia-election-1st-round
Updated: 2026-05-28T19:20:08.688Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 5-10% at 29%
- Runner-up: Margin of Victory?: de la Espriella Win at 26%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 5-10% | 29¢ | +6pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/colombia-election-1st-round-margin-of-victory-cepe-polymarket-0x0c2924a04e0159dfdcd2996534d45bdbeade41cdf5cc084b532ec35563e83941 |
| Margin of Victory?: de la Espriella Win | 26¢ | −3pp | $326 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-election-1st-round-margin-of-victory-de-l-polymarket-0xe9e8784dd743d09e69a69f87debda6d97b175fd3ccfce7238f68274e30196986 |
| Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 0-5% | 23¢ | ±0 | $1K | polymarket | /markets/colombia-election-1st-round-margin-of-victory-cepe-polymarket-0x13eff396ae562ffdc52f4d6897551191e64fa718890f1f26afd051e8b8554dd3 |
| Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 10-15% | 18¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/colombia-election-1st-round-margin-of-victory-cepe-polymarket-0xe689107d5893d698f499e186bf64b5a70b9b927654eaacf934b0582604c545f1 |
| Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 15-20% | 7¢ | −2pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/colombia-election-1st-round-margin-of-victory-cepe-polymarket-0xde94ee9bb90f45efa07a7cb069086941f68939494256c27ff1f9c098b681e218 |
| Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 20%+ | 3¢ | +2pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/colombia-election-1st-round-margin-of-victory-cepe-polymarket-0xdee3c26a52d890e1b86ff9014d05566e4b05895c968de1e0b86e70c7f2cc9b4f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 5-10% | Margin of Victory?: de la Espriella Win | Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 0-5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 32 | 15 | — |
| 2026-05-17 | 32 | 13 | 14 |
| 2026-05-21 | 23 | 14 | 21 |
| 2026-05-27 | 24 | 32 | 23 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 29 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 10-15% −11pp 32→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · Margin of Victory?: de la Espriella Win +10pp 17→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 10-15% +9pp 22→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 0-5% +9pp 12→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 20%+ −7pp 12→5¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market measures the probability that Gustavo Petro's preferred successor, Francia Márquez or allied candidate, wins Colombia's first-round presidential election with a 10-15 percentage-point margin. At 38%, traders view a narrow victory in this range as more likely than the runner-up scenario (33%), suggesting competitive but not dominant performance. The relatively compressed probability distribution across margin bands reflects uncertainty about voter consolidation and turnout among left-leaning coalitions. Key drivers include economic conditions, voter enthusiasm for the ruling party's agenda, and fragmentation on the right. The outcome becomes certain on election day, which will reveal actual first-round results and determine whether winners advance to a runoff.

### Key factors

- Historical Colombian first-round margins: past elections show winners typically exceed 20-25% margins, making a 10-15% gap notably narrow by precedent
- Ruling coalition consolidation risk: the left's vote could splinter across multiple candidates, reducing the leading candidate's margin significantly below 10%
- Right-wing fragmentation: if opposition votes split across competing conservative candidates, the leading left candidate's margin could widen beyond 15%
- Voter turnout patterns: abstention rates and demographic participation shifts will directly affect the absolute vote gaps between top finishers
- Recent polling data and trend direction: surveys in the months preceding the election will show whether the frontrunner is gaining or losing ground relative to competitors

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colombia-election-1st-round
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=colombia-election-1st-round
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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