# Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-2nd-place
Updated: 2026-06-05T07:20:12.382Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: 2nd place: Abelardo de la Espriella at 76%
- Runner-up: 2nd place: Iván Cepeda Castro at 23%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd place: Abelardo de la Espriella | 76¢ | −68pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-2nd-place-polymarket-0x4e7ab14e108ea5a9155cec536b435c098b72702639598f0c28349c8bac946d94 |
| 2nd place: Iván Cepeda Castro | 23¢ | +2pp | $346 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-2nd-place-polymarket-0xd5316f1032d75854eaca7b48150223e5191d43231aa14ee7b2cb8a2186d681a6 |
| 2nd place: Sergio Fajardo | 3¢ | +5pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-2nd-place-polymarket-0x214e38b663643eb8428e7eebc73eada6fe580724ce6ad298e22b04b6ed2af0b9 |
| 2nd place: Paloma Valencia | 3¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-2nd-place-polymarket-0xda907bc72ace0a6ee956394b022dd7a07e23dd7e1f2346ec1d6cef392e87e77d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 2nd place: Abelardo de la Espriella | 2nd place: Iván Cepeda Castro | 2nd place: Sergio Fajardo |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | — | 14 | — |
| 2026-05-17 | 72 | 12 | — |
| 2026-05-25 | 64 | 28 | — |
| 2026-05-30 | 71 | 23 | 2 |
| 2026-05-31 | 69 | 31 | 7 |
| 2026-06-01 | 1 | 98 | — |
| 2026-06-04 | — | 100 | — |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · 2nd place: Abelardo de la Espriella −68pp 69→1¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · 2nd place: Iván Cepeda Castro +67pp 31→98¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · 2nd place: Paloma Valencia −5pp 5→0¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects the probability that Abelardo de la Espriella finishes in second place in Colombia's 2026 presidential first round. At 68%, traders view him as a strong contender for the runner-up position, with Iván Cepeda Castro as the nearest alternative at 29%. The pricing reflects recent polling trends, Espriella's standing within his political faction, and broader dynamics of vote consolidation among center-right and moderate candidates. The key uncertainty involves how fragmented the field remains and whether regional voting patterns shift support toward competing candidates. The first-round vote itself will resolve all outcome contracts, making actual election day the critical catalyst for determining final standings and eliminating current uncertainty about candidate positioning.

### Key factors

- Recent Colombian polling data showing Espriella's relative standing among non-frontrunner candidates in the presidential race
- Fragmentation across moderate and center-right voter segments and whether consolidation occurs before election day
- Historical patterns of second-place finishes in Colombian presidential first rounds and typical vote distributions
- Espriella's organizational capacity and campaign resources compared to Cepeda Castro and other listed competitors
- The date of the first-round presidential election itself, which will provide definitive resolution of candidate rankings

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-2nd-place
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-2nd-place
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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