# Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round

> Turnout?: 54-57% leads at 37%, runner-up 28% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round
Updated: 2026-05-28T19:20:14.558Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Turnout?: 54-57% at 37%
- Runner-up: Turnout?: 57-60% at 28%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $267

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnout?: 54-57% | 37¢ | −6pp | $24 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-turnout-5-polymarket-0x85891d3d64d31941b042c277f8d2182fe05d36a317e457cc8c3d07009d21972d |
| Turnout?: 57-60% | 28¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-turnout-5-polymarket-0x9f741b859dc92f9018257354231e5522ff16f72ef44c649a6e193b99f1ed2a5c |
| Turnout?: 60%+ | 14¢ | +1pp | $6 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-turnout-6-polymarket-0xba55f0eabef3afd1e0e2ef9cc025c99e396aef5a7cbb1f25e9fd296e72ef0663 |
| Turnout?: 51-54% | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-turnout-5-polymarket-0x42ea1c69f5d319d0dfb4e4b3bc67f8b62d76a43eecd9f951e24adb2fc5e9dfe9 |
| Turnout?: 48-51% | 11¢ | ±0 | $71 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-turnout-4-polymarket-0x258b1127a71bed3958a02bb6fb1efdea5a4d2fe318e07c38c44ba7f7d0fb2613 |
| Turnout?: <48% | 6¢ | −3pp | $166 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-turnout-4-polymarket-0x1d39c4a1a36a4eb905fceb33b6e37dcde0edf73ce338ace175c218427b3aa0b5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Turnout?: 54-57% | Turnout?: 57-60% | Turnout?: 60%+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 46 | — | 15 |
| 2026-05-17 | 49 | 19 | 20 |
| 2026-05-20 | 49 | 24 | 13 |
| 2026-05-21 | 51 | 25 | — |
| 2026-05-26 | 37 | 23 | 15 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 30 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-25 · Turnout?: 48-51% −7pp 26→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Turnout?: 54-57% −6pp 43→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Turnout?: 57-60% +5pp 23→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · Turnout?: 48-51% +4pp 22→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Turnout?: <48% −3pp 5→2¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that turnout in Colombia's first-round presidential election will fall between 54-57%. Turnout in Colombian elections has historically varied substantially based on voter engagement, regional participation patterns, and competition dynamics among candidates. The current 48% probability suggests modest confidence in this particular turnout band, with meaningful probability mass assigned to higher turnout (60%+) and adjacent ranges. Key drivers include voter enthusiasm around leading candidates, mobilization capacity of political campaigns, and socioeconomic factors affecting participation across regions. The outcome will be definitively resolved when official turnout figures are published by Colombia's electoral authority following the election, making this a binary outcome that depends entirely on administrative reporting rather than subjective interpretation.

### Key factors

- Historical Colombian first-round turnout has ranged from approximately 48% to 54% over recent presidential cycles, constraining the plausibility of extreme values
- The 60%+ turnout contract trading at 27¢ suggests meaningful probability markets assign to unusually high participation, likely driven by competitive candidate fields or exceptional mobilization
- Turnout in the 48-51% and 51-54% bands each trade between 24-26¢, indicating near-equal probability assigned to lower adjacent ranges versus the current leader
- Recent polling intensity and media engagement levels would provide leading indicators of turnout expectations weeks before the official vote
- Election date and official turnout release by Colombian electoral authority (CNE) represent the sole mechanism for resolving this contract with objective data

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=colombia-presidential-election-1st-round
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.