# Colombia vs. DR Congo

> Colombia leads at 65%, runner-up 20% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colombia-vs-dr-congo
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.989Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-24

## Headline

- Leader: Colombia at 65%
- Runner-up: Draw (Colombia vs. DR Congo) at 20%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-vs-dr-congo-colombia-polymarket-0xe120b5ac48c5e2abdfcb3e34be55567e2ae81caaa87a243e964814ca65e6667e |
| Draw (Colombia vs. DR Congo) | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-vs-dr-congo-draw-colombia-vs-dr-congo-polymarket-0x06215a799ed95eb008eea3d8de97448c2030f8ec790547e6ce1bd9e974f9b70d |
| DR Congo | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-vs-dr-congo-dr-congo-polymarket-0x8148ac62977e95dd3cb5d2cda5dd0b1071721f3ffb101941b3499fa4e074fae2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Colombia | Draw (Colombia vs. DR Congo) | DR Congo |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | — | 22 |
| 2026-05-01 | — | 21 | 22 |
| 2026-05-02 | 60 | 20 | 22 |
| 2026-05-08 | 65 | 20 | 18 |
| 2026-05-09 | 65 | — | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Colombia +3pp 60→63¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 60% probability reflects market expectation that Colombia will win in a matchup against DR Congo. The current probability sits notably above a coin flip, suggesting traders view Colombia as a clear favorite in this contest. Market liquidity is heavily concentrated elsewhere—Portugal vs. DR Congo contracts show significantly higher trading volume ($378 in 24 hours) compared to the Colombia match itself, indicating this particular contract has received less analytical attention and price discovery. The probability could shift upward if new information suggests Colombia's competitive advantage, or downward if DR Congo demonstrates unexpected strength or if bettors reassess team composition, form, or tactical matchups. Resolution depends on the match outcome when it occurs, making the timing and confirmed participation of both teams critical factors in whether this market remains active or settles.

### Key factors

- Trading volume for this specific contract is minimal, suggesting the 60% price may not reflect deep market consensus compared to the Portugal vs. DR Congo contracts that show $378 in 24-hour volume
- The runner-up outcome (20%) and draw option (20%) together represent 40%, indicating meaningful uncertainty about whether Colombia will actually win despite holding the 60% lead
- Portugal's 76¢ implied probability in a separate contract with much higher volume may reflect stronger team confidence overall, but direct Colombia strength data is limited in current contract volumes
- The 40% average price on Polymarket for Colombia vs. DR Congo contracts suggests internal disagreement or lower liquidity creating divergence from the 60% leader price shown here
- No scheduled match date or tournament framework is evident from the contract names, creating ambiguity about when resolution occurs and whether both teams will actually participate as expected

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colombia-vs-dr-congo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=colombia-vs-dr-congo

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.