# Colombia vs. Portugal

> Portugal leads at 45%, runner-up 35% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colombia-vs-portugal
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:25.451Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: Portugal at 45%
- Runner-up: Colombia at 35%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $56

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 45¢ | ±0 | $56 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-vs-portugal-portugal-polymarket-0x597e0e209cef883bb95c6905f07d8066c3ef35652087d3611c43b93f0ed237c2 |
| Colombia | 35¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-vs-portugal-colombia-polymarket-0xfbcdae24669153e811b86329a4adb56689b590845b02fd0c16e7b1826c863034 |
| Draw (Colombia vs. Portugal) | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-vs-portugal-draw-colombia-vs-portugal-polymarket-0x8765cc2b3c75089a9c5de8d12d52274857a2e573a9726bc023faa2a046340fac |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Portugal | Colombia | Draw (Colombia vs. Portugal) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 32 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 45 | 33 | 27 |
| 2026-05-02 | 43 | 33 | 28 |
| 2026-05-09 | 45 | 34 | 28 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Colombia is currently priced at 42% to win against Portugal in what appears to be an upcoming match. This probability reflects Portugal's recent form and higher betting activity on Polymarket—where Portugal reached 76¢ against DR Congo—suggesting market confidence in the European side. The pricing sits between competitive and favoring Portugal (32% runner-up), indicating uncertainty about match outcomes. Key factors moving this probability would include team lineups, recent performance records, head-to-head history, and the specific tournament context. The match itself will resolve this market once played; bettors are currently positioning based on pre-game conditions and available information about both teams' current strength.

### Key factors

- Portugal's Polymarket contracts show significantly higher trading volume ($378 24h) and higher odds (76¢) against comparable opposition, suggesting stronger market conviction in Portuguese strength
- Colombia's Kalshi price stands at 20¢ versus Portugal's 39¢ in the same market, representing a 19-point spread that contradicts the 42% headline probability, indicating potential pricing inconsistency across venues
- The 42% Colombia probability ranks third behind Portugal (implied ~50%+ when accounting for the second-place runner at 32%), suggesting the market views Colombia as the underdog despite the relatively close headline number
- Trading volumes are heavily concentrated on Portugal-related contracts ($378-$383) versus Colombia contracts ($1-$2), indicating asymmetric market depth and potentially less refined pricing for Colombian outcomes
- No scheduled date is explicitly provided in the contract data, leaving the match timing uncertain and preventing calculation of days-to-resolution for assessing information decay

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colombia-vs-portugal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=colombia-vs-portugal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.