# Will Iván Cepeda Castro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 3 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colombia1r2
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:41.971Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Cepeda Castro | 8¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ivn-cepeda-castro-finish-2nd-in-the-first-rou-kalshi-kxcolombia1r2-colombiapres26-2-icas |
| Paloma Valencia | 29¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paloma-valencia-finish-2nd-in-the-first-round-kalshi-kxcolombia1r2-colombiapres26-2-pval |
| Abelardo de la Espriella | 60¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-abelardo-de-la-espriella-finish-2nd-in-the-fi-kalshi-kxcolombia1r2-colombiapres26-2-aesp |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 21 |
| 2026-05-08 | 32 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Paloma Valencia +11pp 25→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Abelardo de la Espriella +9pp 49→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Iván Cepeda Castro −4pp 6→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Iván Cepeda Castro +4pp 2→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Paloma Valencia −4pp 36→32¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market assesses whether Iván Cepeda Castro, a Colombian left-wing senator and former FARC negotiator, will finish in second place in the first round of Colombia's 2026 presidential election scheduled for May 29, 2026. The 37% aggregate probability reflects significant disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders price it at 34% while Polymarket traders at 67%, a 33 percentage-point gap suggesting uncertainty about either Cepeda's viability as a second-place finisher or broader Colombian electoral dynamics. Movement in this market depends on polling trends showing whether Cepeda maintains support among leftist voters and whether other candidates consolidate votes in crowded primary conditions. The May 29 election will definitively resolve this contract, making pre-election polling releases and campaign developments the primary information channels affecting probability shifts before that date.

### Key factors

- Recent Colombian polling position of Cepeda relative to other candidates in the candidate field, particularly among left-wing and centrist voters
- Total number of viable candidates entering the first round and their relative vote-share forecasts, which affects threshold for finishing second
- Voter turnout expectations and regional voting patterns that could concentrate or disperse Cepeda's support base
- Significant divergence between Kalshi (34%) and Polymarket (67%) suggests either data asymmetry or different trader composition interpreting identical election information
- Polling volatility and changes in candidate viability between now and May 29, 2026 election date

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colombia1r2
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=colombia1r2
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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