# Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 12% and 15%

> Abelardo de la Espriella, 3-6% leads at 5%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colombian2rmov
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.507Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-21

## Headline

- Leader: Abelardo de la Espriella, 3-6% at 5%
- Runner-up: Abelardo de la Espriella, 9-12% at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $607

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abelardo de la Espriella, 3-6% | 5¢ | ±0 | $605 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-abelardo-de-la-espr-kalshi-kxcolombian2rmov-colombiapres26-aesp-p4 |
| Abelardo de la Espriella, 9-12% | 3¢ | −7pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-abelardo-de-la-espr-kalshi-kxcolombian2rmov-colombiapres26-aesp-p10 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Abelardo de la Espriella, 3-6% | Abelardo de la Espriella, 9-12% |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 5 | 6 |
| 2026-06-12 | 10 | 27 |
| 2026-06-19 | 20 | 23 |
| 2026-06-23 | 2 | 2 |
| 2026-06-24 | 2 | — |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Abelardo de la Espriella, 3-6% −16pp 19→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Abelardo de la Espriella, 9-12% −8pp 17→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Abelardo de la Espriella, 9-12% −7pp 9→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Abelardo de la Espriella, 9-12% −6pp 23→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Abelardo de la Espriella, 3-6% +5pp 15→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 16% chance that Abelardo de la Espriella wins the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff by a margin between 12% and 15 percentage points. The market is currently pricing de la Espriella's most likely margin at 6–9%, with modest spillover probability into the 12–15% band. De la Espriella's lead depends on campaign momentum, voter consolidation in the runoff, and whether opposition voters coalesce around the runner-up. The main scenario driving higher probability in this band would be stronger-than-expected turnout among his base or significant defection from the alternative candidate. The runoff itself—scheduled for June 2026—will settle the outcome, with final vote tallies determining the exact margin. Liquidity is minimal on this specific contract, suggesting limited trading activity despite the nearby election date.

### Key factors

- De la Espriella's support ceiling: whether primary voters convert to runoff turnout at expected rates or defect to the alternative candidate
- Opposition consolidation: whether Iván Cepeda's voters migrate cohesively to the runoff alternative or fragment
- Turnout differential: changes in voter mobilization between de la Espriella's coalition and the runner-up's base
- Polling convergence: the gap between current polling and actual runoff vote share narrows significantly in the final weeks
- Runoff date and official vote count: Colombian electoral authority certification in June 2026 will definitively resolve all margin bands

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colombian2rmov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=colombian2rmov

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.