# Colorado Democratic Senate Primary Winner

> John Hickenlooper leads at 84%, runner-up 13% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colorado-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.555Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: John Hickenlooper at 84%
- Runner-up: Julie Gonzales at 13%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $304

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Hickenlooper | 84¢ | −2pp | $304 | polymarket | /markets/colorado-democratic-senate-primary-winner-john-hic-polymarket-0x3041c7dc3ff913c20b602cee967316eead4ed66f3c57bca532a0cad06fca2796 |
| Julie Gonzales | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/colorado-democratic-senate-primary-winner-julie-go-polymarket-0x963e2eb7517c989527123c96afc88d500bd3eca432e470636c21c1b0a78289da |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | John Hickenlooper | Julie Gonzales |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 81 | 16 |
| 2026-04-25 | 84 | 15 |
| 2026-05-01 | 81 | 14 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 14 |
| 2026-05-07 | — | 14 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The Colorado Democratic Senate Primary has one candidate trading at 81% probability of winning the nomination, with a runner-up at 14%. This reflects market expectation of a decisive primary outcome. The current frontrunner's position likely reflects name recognition, early endorsements, fundraising totals, or polling advantages within the state party. Key factors that would shift this probability include upcoming candidate debates, new public polling releases, or endorsements from prominent Colorado Democrats. The primary election date would be the ultimate resolution event, determining the actual nominee. Until then, changes in candidate campaign strength, voter preference shifts measured through surveys, or organizational capacity on the ground would drive market repricing. The wide gap between the leader and runner-up suggests relatively high confidence in the outcome, though primary contests remain inherently uncertain until ballots are cast.

### Key factors

- Leader's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to runner-up, indicating relative campaign resources and sustainability
- Public polling from Colorado Democratic primary voters showing candidate preference trends and undecided voter share
- Endorsements from established Colorado Democratic figures, labor unions, or party organizations that signal momentum or institutional backing
- Candidate debate performance and media coverage in the weeks before the primary election
- Voter turnout model assumptions—whether primary electorate composition favors the frontrunner's demographic base

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colorado-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=colorado-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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