# Colorado Republican Senate Primary Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 97% across 1 contract — refreshed 3 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colorado-republican-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T01:20:13.811Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Baisley | 97¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/colorado-republican-senate-primary-winner-mark-bai-polymarket-0x7391df4303788c6fe33c77afd7b87bd1d34359b6a5f00f5c68580db05eb463e7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 45 |
| 2026-04-24 | 96 |
| 2026-05-02 | 95 |
| 2026-05-08 | 98 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 45% probability reflects the likelihood that a specific candidate wins Colorado's Republican Senate primary. The outcome depends primarily on candidate name recognition, grassroots organization, and fundraising strength within the state's Republican electorate. Recent polling data, candidate endorsements, and voter turnout in early voting phases would significantly shift expectations. The primary election date itself will serve as the defining moment that resolves this uncertainty, as actual vote totals replace speculation about voter preferences. Until then, developments like major donor commitments, high-profile endorsements from state party leaders, or significant shifts in internal campaign polling would create substantial movement in the probability estimate.

### Key factors

- Relative funding and spending levels by each candidate as of May 2026, which correlates with campaign reach and voter contact capability
- Published polling of Colorado Republican primary voters showing candidate name recognition and preference ordering
- Endorsement patterns from state party establishment, county-level GOP organizations, and prominent Republican figures
- Voter turnout patterns in early voting periods compared to historical baselines for Colorado Republican primaries
- Campaign organization metrics such as field staff hires, volunteer activation, and voter contact volume reported by campaigns

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/colorado-republican-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=colorado-republican-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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