# Will Honduras win the CONCACAF Nations League A

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 12 contracts — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/concacafnl
Updated: 2026-08-10T06:20:51.563Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-15

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 42¢ | −18pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-mexico-win-the-concacaf-nations-league-a-mexi-kalshi-kxconcacafnl-27a-mex |
| USA | 30¢ | +12pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-usa-win-the-concacaf-nations-league-a-usa-kalshi-kxconcacafnl-27a-usa |
| Dominican Republic | 34¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-dominican-republic-win-the-concacaf-nations-l-kalshi-kxconcacafnl-27a-dom |
| Anguilla | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anguilla-win-the-concacaf-nations-league-c-an-kalshi-kxconcacafnl-27c-aia |
| Cuba | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cuba-win-the-concacaf-nations-league-b-cuba-kalshi-kxconcacafnl-27b-cub |
| Saint Lucia | 69¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-saint-lucia-win-the-concacaf-nations-league-b-kalshi-kxconcacafnl-27b-lca |
| Costa Rica | 43¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-costa-rica-win-the-concacaf-nations-league-a-kalshi-kxconcacafnl-27a-cri |
| Jamaica | 38¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamaica-win-the-concacaf-nations-league-a-jam-kalshi-kxconcacafnl-27a-jam |
| El Salvador | 37¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-el-salvador-win-the-concacaf-nations-league-a-kalshi-kxconcacafnl-27a-slv |
| Curacao | 38¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-curacao-win-the-concacaf-nations-league-a-cur-kalshi-kxconcacafnl-27a-cuw |
| Guatemala | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-guatemala-win-the-concacaf-nations-league-a-g-kalshi-kxconcacafnl-27a-gtm |
| Haiti | 23¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-haiti-win-the-concacaf-nations-league-a-haiti-kalshi-kxconcacafnl-27a-hti |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | 33 |
| 2026-08-03 | 30 |
| 2026-08-10 | 30 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-09 · Mexico +18pp 48→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · Mexico −18pp 66→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · USA +12pp 18→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Mexico +9pp 48→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Mexico −9pp 57→48¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability suggests Honduras has roughly a one-in-three chance of winning the CONCACAF Nations League A tournament. The 32% estimate reflects Honduras's competitive standing within a regional tournament featuring teams like Mexico, Guatemala, and Canada. The main factors driving this level are Honduras's recent performance record in CONCACAF competitions and how that compares to other contenders in the bracket. The tournament structure and which teams Honduras would face in knockout stages significantly affects their odds. Resolution will occur when the Nations League A tournament concludes and a champion is crowned, likely sometime in 2026 or early 2027 depending on the competition schedule. Market pricing suggests Guatemala (43¢) and Honduras (38¢) are viewed as more competitive than Mexico (25¢), indicating expectations about relative team strength have shifted or been reassessed by traders.

### Key factors

- Honduras's win rate in recent CONCACAF tournament play compared to Guatemala, Mexico, and other Nations League A participants
- The specific bracket draw and potential matchups Honduras would face—some paths to the final are mathematically easier than others depending on seeding
- Honduras's squad depth and availability of key players during the tournament window
- Historical head-to-head records between Honduras and other Nations League A teams, particularly Mexico and Guatemala
- Whether the tournament format favors offensive or defensive play styles that align with Honduras's tactical strengths

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/concacafnl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=concacafnl

## License

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