# Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch — $50M

> $50M leads at 92%, runner-up 71% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/concrete-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.232Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $50M at 92%
- Runner-up: $100M at 71%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 92¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/concrete-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0xd15bc502b75f6724f60f91838d2e2dcb12392f904edab6dc9751298cef70bba2 |
| $100M | 71¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/concrete-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0xb83e7f7034ac55d793edd4f051ae56a01a786ed297b88f61bedcbe284d64d9ef |
| $200M | 59¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/concrete-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0xead69b8dc8f360f3f9c135088db725d17fbb06936053ef757468e9c1255bd576 |
| $300M | 56¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/concrete-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0x10539cab13c670f4baede94ab4fba9b2cf45418b160915b325ec6ee168675141 |
| $500M | 50¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/concrete-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0xca4be13340996177ef9b3e4066cb17f2327f367415e1f2cbd985ff03e4e171be |
| $1B | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/concrete-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0xbcd5270513cd50666209999f61e972caf54793465dff6ced4de5bcf28992ec3a |
| $800M | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/concrete-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-800m-polymarket-0xe566ca80d2cf906dd5e124714b09baa0726dfa38e603ca5787e262743216c48a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $50M | $100M | $200M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 81 | 72 | 60 |
| 2026-05-02 | 93 | 66 | 57 |
| 2026-05-08 | 93 | 66 | 58 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · $50M +7pp 86→93¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $500M −6pp 57→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $300M +4pp 51→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $500M +4pp 50→54¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $100M +3pp 67→70¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether a cryptocurrency or blockchain project will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) exceeding $50 million within one day of its public launch. The 94% probability reflects strong market confidence in this outcome occurring. The assessment is driven by two main factors: historical precedent showing that most token launches achieve at least $50M FDV if they generate meaningful trading volume, and the implied competitiveness of reaching this threshold—a relatively modest valuation for projects attracting enough attention to launch on major platforms. The primary resolution point is the actual launch date and the immediate 24-hour trading data following it, which will determine whether the $50M FDV threshold is crossed. Downside scenarios involve unexpected technical issues, reduced market demand at launch, or macroeconomic conditions suppressing initial valuations. The contract's high probability aligns with lower barriers to entry at the $50M level compared to higher thresholds, where confidence drops notably.

### Key factors

- Historical launch data shows most projects achieving sufficient trading activity reach $50M+ FDV within the first day
- The $50M threshold is substantially lower than competing outcomes ($500M–$1B), making it easier to achieve
- Current market conditions and crypto sector health at launch time will directly impact initial valuations and trading volume
- The specific project's marketing, community size, and positioning relative to competitors affect day-one liquidity and price discovery
- Unexpected technical failures, exchange listing delays, or regulatory blockers could prevent the launch from occurring as scheduled

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/concrete-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=concrete-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.