# Will Sam Altman testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 12 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/congresstestify
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:23.154Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 20¢ | +2pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-ghislaine-maxwell-testify-in-front-of-congres-kalshi-kxcongresstestify-27jan-gmax |
| Jerome Powell | 27¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerome-powell-testify-in-front-of-congress-be-kalshi-kxcongresstestify-27jan-jpow |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 40¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-zuckerberg-testify-in-front-of-congress-kalshi-kxcongresstestify-27jan-mzuc |
| Sam Altman | 56¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sam-altman-testify-in-front-of-congress-befor-kalshi-kxcongresstestify-27jan-salt |
| Jon Stewart | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jon-stewart-testify-in-front-of-congress-befo-kalshi-kxcongresstestify-27jan-jste |
| Jelly Roll | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jelly-roll-testify-in-front-of-congress-befor-kalshi-kxcongresstestify-27jan-jrol |
| Anthony Fauci | 23¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthony-fauci-testify-in-front-of-congress-be-kalshi-kxcongresstestify-27jan-afau |
| Shou Zi Chew | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shou-zi-chew-testify-in-front-of-congress-bef-kalshi-kxcongresstestify-27jan-sche |
| Taylor Swift | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-testify-in-front-of-congress-bef-kalshi-kxcongresstestify-27jan-tswi |
| Kamala Harris | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kamala-harris-testify-in-front-of-congress-be-kalshi-kxcongresstestify-27jan-khar |
| Joe Biden | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-biden-testify-in-front-of-congress-before-kalshi-kxcongresstestify-27jan-jbid |
| James Donaldson | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-donaldson-testify-in-front-of-congress-kalshi-kxcongresstestify-27jan-jdon |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 23 |
| 2026-04-19 | 41 |
| 2026-04-26 | 46 |
| 2026-05-03 | 34 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Jerome Powell −33pp 57→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Jerome Powell +10pp 19→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Jerome Powell −5pp 24→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that Sam Altman will be called to testify before a congressional committee between now and January 2027. Congressional testimony typically occurs when lawmakers investigate significant policy issues, corporate practices, or controversies. The current 36% probability suggests markets view testimony as possible but not highly likely. Factors driving this level include the absence of active congressional investigations into OpenAI specifically, though AI regulation remains a topic of legislative interest. The cross-venue gap of 8 percentage points indicates some disagreement about likelihood. The biggest catalyst would be a formal congressional hearing announcement or trigger event—such as AI-related incidents, regulatory developments, or specific legislative proposals targeting AI governance—that prompts lawmakers to seek testimony from major AI company leaders. Without such an event materializing, baseline expectations remain moderate.

### Key factors

- No announced congressional hearing or investigation specifically targeting Sam Altman or OpenAI as of late April 2026
- Jerome Powell's congressional testimony probability sits at 57%, suggesting regular Fed chair appearances, whereas no comparable obligation exists for AI company CEOs
- Sam Altman's White House visit probability is 78%, indicating political access but not necessarily legislative scrutiny
- AI regulation remains an active topic in Congress, but testimony requests typically follow triggering events rather than occurring proactively
- Market pricing shows 8-percentage-point divergence between venues, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the likelihood and timing of congressional interest

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/congresstestify
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=congresstestify
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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