# Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year

> Nathan MacKinnon leads at 21%, runner-up 11% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/connsmythe
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:52.682Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-28

## Headline

- Leader: Nathan MacKinnon at 21%
- Runner-up: Frederik Andersen at 11%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $856

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | 21¢ | −1pp | $629 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-nath-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-nmac |
| Frederik Andersen | 11¢ | +3pp | $137 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-fred-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-fand |
| Nikita Kucherov | 11¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-niki-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-kkuc |
| Jake Oettinger | 9¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-jake-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-joet |
| Leon Draisaitl | 8¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-leon-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-ldra |
| Mikko Rantanen | 8¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-mikk-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-mran |
| Cale Makar | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-cale-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-cmak |
| Cole Caufield | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-cole-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-ccau |
| Scott Wedgewood | 5¢ | +1pp | $70 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-scot-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-swed |
| Kirill Kaprizov | 4¢ | −7pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-kiri-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-kkap |
| Nick Suzuki | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-nick-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-nsuz |
| Sebastian Aho | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-seba-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-saho |
| Jack Eichel | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-jack-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-jeic |
| Tage Thompson | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-conn-smythe-trophy-this-year-tage-kalshi-kxconnsmythe-26-ttho |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Nathan MacKinnon | Frederik Andersen | Nikita Kucherov |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | 14 | — | — |
| 2026-04-17 | 17 | — | 6 |
| 2026-04-19 | 17 | — | 3 |
| 2026-04-26 | 16 | — | 3 |
| 2026-05-01 | 16 | 3 | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | 19 | 8 | 11 |
| 2026-05-03 | 18 | 11 | — |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Kirill Kaprizov +10pp 5→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Kirill Kaprizov −7pp 15→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Frederik Andersen +5pp 3→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Leon Draisaitl +5pp 3→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Nikita Kucherov +4pp 7→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 40% probability indicates that one particular team is currently favored to win the Stanley Cup, but faces substantial competition from other contenders. This represents the market's assessment based on team roster strength, playoff performance to date, and injury status heading into the final stretch of the 2025-26 regular season. The probability could shift significantly based on late-season acquisitions at the trade deadline, key player injuries, or early playoff performance. The Stanley Cup Finals in June will ultimately resolve this outcome, with each playoff round between now and then providing new information about team momentum and performance under playoff conditions.

### Key factors

- Current team health status and any significant injuries to star players or goaltenders
- Trade deadline activity in early March and how teams bolster their rosters for playoff runs
- Head-to-head playoff performance in the first two rounds, which typically reshapes market expectations
- Strength of schedule in the remaining regular season games and playoff seeding implications
- Historical playoff success and experience of coaching staff and veteran players on the favored team

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/connsmythe
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=connsmythe

## License

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