# Will Cook Islands Party win the 2026 Cook Islands general election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cookparli
Updated: 2026-08-28T15:20:52.318Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-08-12

## Headline

- Probability: 36% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Islands Party | 97¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cook-islands-party-win-the-2026-cook-islands-kalshi-kxcookparli-26aug12-cip |
| Democratic Party | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democratic-party-win-the-2026-cook-islands-ge-kalshi-kxcookparli-26aug12-dp |
| One Cook Islands Movement | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-one-cook-islands-movement-win-the-2026-cook-i-kalshi-kxcookparli-26aug12-oci |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | 88 |
| 2026-08-23 | 98 |
| 2026-08-27 | 97 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The Cook Islands Party is currently assigned a 24% probability of winning the 2026 general election, implying a roughly 3-to-1 odds against victory. This reflects market expectations relative to other major parties competing—the Democratic Party trades at 36%, while One Cook Islands Movement and Cook Islands United Party each trade at 3%. The current estimate suggests the Democratic Party enters as the frontrunner in market expectations, though no single party commands majority probability. The Cook Islands holds general elections once every four years; the election date and campaign dynamics will determine whether this probability shifts significantly. Factors shaping the Cook Islands Party's chances include recent polling data, campaign momentum, coalition-building possibilities, voter sentiment on key local issues, and leadership performance. The actual election date will provide the definitive resolution, with final results expected to clarify which party secured the most parliamentary seats.

### Key factors

- The Cook Islands Party's 24% probability ranks third among the four major parties tracked, behind the Democratic Party (36%) and substantially ahead of One Cook Islands Movement and Cook Islands United Party (3% each)
- Market concentration shows 55¢ on Cook Islands Party contracts compared to 36¢ on Democratic Party, suggesting price discovery remains active and relative valuations may shift with new information
- The election outcome depends on parliamentary seat distribution across multiple constituencies; coalition dynamics and strategic alliances could significantly alter winning probabilities from current baseline estimates
- Recent polling results, campaign announcements, leadership changes, or major policy shifts specific to Cook Islands domestic politics would typically drive probability movements in prediction markets for elections
- The scheduled 2026 election date provides a definitive resolution point; as the election date approaches, historical patterns show prediction markets typically narrow probability ranges based on accumulated campaign information

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cookparli
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cookparli
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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