# Copa Libertadores

> Winner: Always Ready leads at 48%, runner-up 47% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/copa-libertadores
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.613Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-12

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Always Ready at 48%
- Runner-up: Winner: Santa Fe at 47%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Always Ready | 48¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-always-ready-polymarket-0xd58e7b1f52cad7506fedc813908d83114358e251ba4a0adf0c84f232f8397f39 |
| Winner: Santa Fe | 47¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-santa-fe-polymarket-0x94c49b989c59016b466e25ac33dd0a0724150472b0129badcaf85449c79c62ec |
| Winner: Nacional | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-nacional-polymarket-0xf8c7175a4b3cafa2bdcbc6c93d49392eef0faa78b03bdc3f9911019afabe5933 |
| Winner: LDU Quito | 47¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-ldu-quito-polymarket-0x9fc621af2c1b0bd58725a7b4e05b7309c3239d935a9e4683ac46637fc0256e6f |
| Winner: Libertad | 47¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-libertad-polymarket-0xd8dd5144ecef71505ccbbd3830a73cdab499044eb9cd27a144f889ae17f2aa4b |
| Winner: Platense | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-platense-polymarket-0x53abb3a500757b6360135005b8de8a4b52cb80a87d27e8378ea2d348c15d4b40 |
| Winner: Mirassol | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-mirassol-polymarket-0xde98deea70d019135ba6dd530363cf54f8fa917c44ab4516877d538650d87e88 |
| Winner: Flamengo | 46¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-flamengo-polymarket-0x5290ac302da33abf1dbe9057ef050d33b1186c9ada626c12efe3504680981d81 |
| Winner: Peñarol | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-pearol-polymarket-0x6cff84860f636a1d11955461bef14d689fcf36121b5359547e280843e7065a94 |
| Winner: Estudiantes LP | 45¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-estudiantes-lp-polymarket-0x728bcf227110da1e57b770506451ad7dd72adfd7c11fd7bae3c38ff716f1382b |
| Winner: Boca Juniors | 43¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-boca-juniors-polymarket-0xb9154c4712bc63e68c6acd37a207efa07adcd69bd78653d159c079a115f339b9 |
| Winner: Lanús | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-lans-polymarket-0xaeb591922273e36d6779a74852a64d39743cac0a3ee4ecb17bc6a41091decc29 |
| Winner: Rosario Central | 34¢ | +15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-rosario-central-polymarket-0x975c5b873514f9799d1e13e431317c72cdaacd9f903a37bed8b0e732d3e3c5ff |
| Winner: Corinthians | 32¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-corinthians-polymarket-0x25ba1fbeffd5927afa520ced0db5a5cdc0b48aa95dd25d3f6f3f3022e81dc600 |
| Winner: Palmeiras | 28¢ | +7pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-palmeiras-polymarket-0xdb8e90cf84e7d99aba6b997383b52b61a41abf11d55105433284771054878848 |
| Winner: Independiente Rivadavia | 26¢ | −10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-independiente-rivadavia-polymarket-0x7ab21ffc94516db8ed481fe340cfec3a678fd1f77e3367fd7cd7f0cee13389f8 |
| Winner: Junior | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/copa-libertadores-winner-junior-polymarket-0xa045c3975e2a47c6e9dbc278fe311b7a608332b58a19f6290555c97c79f60805 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Always Ready | Winner: Santa Fe | Winner: Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 0 | — | 18 |
| 2026-04-27 | — | 12 | 24 |
| 2026-05-02 | 47 | 47 | 45 |
| 2026-05-08 | 47 | 48 | 48 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 47 | 48 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Always Ready −25pp 46→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Lanús −25pp 47→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Peñarol −18pp 42→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Winner: Always Ready +18pp 21→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Winner: Lanús +18pp 22→40¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 48% probability represents the market's current assessment that one specific team (tracked by contract ID) will win the 2026 Copa Libertadores tournament. The cluster of individual team contracts priced between 45-47 cents suggests the field is fragmented among roughly 6-8 viable contenders, with no dominant favorite emerging. The probability level reflects uncertainty about both the tournament's competitive balance and the strength of top clubs' current form heading into the competition. Factors likely driving this mid-range assessment include the recent performance records of traditional powerhouses like Flamengo and regional challengers, squad depth and recent transfers, and historical Copa Libertadores outcomes. The key catalyst for movement would be official tournament seeding, playoff results if applicable, or major roster news affecting top contenders in the coming weeks.

### Key factors

- Individual team contracts (Flamengo, Independiente Medellín, Cerro Porteño, etc.) are clustered within 2 cents of each other, indicating no clear consensus favorite rather than a strong consensus prediction
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all listed contracts suggests minimal recent market activity and potential liquidity constraints
- The leading contract at 48% and runner-up at 47% are separated by only 1 percentage point, indicating statistical noise or a genuinely tight race among top contenders
- Tournament format, scheduling, and any playoff structure details would directly influence perceived advantage for teams with specific strengths (e.g., altitude, travel distance)
- Recent domestic league performance and squad stability of the six tracked teams in the 2-3 months prior to Copa Libertadores kickoff would be concrete indicators of form

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/copa-libertadores
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=copa-libertadores

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.