# Atletico Mineiro vs Ceara Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 6 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/copadobrasilgame
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:44.512Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $30

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tie | 26¢ | ±0 | $17 | kalshi | /markets/atletico-mineiro-vs-botafogo-winner-tie-kalshi-kxbrasileirogame-26may10atlbot-tie |
| Botafogo | 25¢ | −1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/atletico-mineiro-vs-botafogo-winner-botafogo-kalshi-kxbrasileirogame-26may10atlbot-bot |
| Atletico Mineiro | 43¢ | +1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/atletico-mineiro-vs-botafogo-winner-atletico-minei-kalshi-kxbrasileirogame-26may10atlbot-atl |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/botafogo-at-atletico-mineiro-totals-over-45-goals-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10atlbot-4 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 70¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/botafogo-at-atletico-mineiro-totals-over-15-goals-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10atlbot-1 |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 24¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/botafogo-at-atletico-mineiro-totals-over-35-goals-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10atlbot-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | 20 |
| 2026-05-06 | 36 |
| 2026-05-07 | 33 |
| 2026-05-08 | 35 |
| 2026-05-09 | 25 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Atletico Mineiro +37pp 4→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Botafogo +11pp 14→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Tie +8pp 18→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored +8pp 2→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored +4pp 19→23¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/copadobrasilgame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=copadobrasilgame

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.