# Mirassol wins by over 1.5 goals

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 1 contract — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/copadobrasilspread
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.788Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $97

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol wins by over 1.5 goals | 35¢ | ±0 | $97 | kalshi | /markets/mirassol-wins-by-over-15-goals-mirassol-wins-by-ov-kalshi-kxbrasileirospread-26may10mircha-mir1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | 5 |
| 2026-05-07 | 35 |
| 2026-05-08 | 35 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Mirassol wins by over 1.5 goals +30pp 5→35¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 22% chance that Mirassol defeats their opponent by more than one goal. Mirassol's relatively low probability reflects typical statistical distributions for lopsided wins—most matches end in draws or single-goal margins. The current level suggests market participants view Mirassol as unlikely to dominate, though not impossibly so. Key drivers include Mirassol's recent form, defensive capabilities of their opponent, and historical head-to-head records. The outcome will be determined when their scheduled match concludes, with resolution depending on final match score. Similar contracts across other teams (Arsenal at 33%, Colorado at 41%) provide context: double-digit goal margins occur in roughly one-fifth to two-fifths of matchups depending on relative team strength.

### Key factors

- Mirassol's recent goal-scoring efficiency and conversion rate in their last 5-10 matches
- Current defensive strength and clean-sheet record of the opposing team
- Historical frequency of 2+ goal victory margins in this league or competition
- Head-to-head results between these specific teams in recent seasons
- Injury or personnel status that could affect attacking depth or defensive stability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/copadobrasilspread
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=copadobrasilspread

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.