# Coppa Italia

> Winner: Inter leads at 72%, runner-up 28% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coppa-italia
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:44.265Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-27

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Inter at 72%
- Runner-up: Winner: Lazio at 28%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $74

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Inter | 72¢ | +2pp | $74 | polymarket | /markets/coppa-italia-winner-inter-polymarket-0x05faaaf2db0b4e17db1fd55475a0f3017522968b87d02f4ff0d9c8c5400f8b05 |
| Winner: Lazio | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/coppa-italia-winner-lazio-polymarket-0x5f3b48421523e90ac67e37d6db683dd11029294f8ea1952ec2ba4b895643d871 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Inter | Winner: Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 68 | 32 |
| 2026-05-02 | 56 | 32 |
| 2026-05-08 | 71 | 29 |
| 2026-05-09 | 73 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Winner: Inter −10pp 66→56¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Winner: Inter +9pp 56→65¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Inter +5pp 65→70¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Lazio −4pp 32→28¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 46% probability represents the combined market assessment that Inter Milan will win the 2026 Coppa Italia. The estimate reflects Inter's strong domestic performance and squad depth, balanced against competition from other Italian clubs like Lazio. A 9-percentage-point gap exists between venues, with Polymarket pricing Inter's chances at 50% versus Kalshi at 41%, suggesting some disagreement about Inter's relative strength. The probability would shift based on team injuries, form changes, or knockout-stage matchups as the tournament progresses. The Coppa Italia final, typically held in May, represents the key resolution point for this market, though earlier eliminations would also clarify outcomes.

### Key factors

- Inter has won the Coppa Italia in 4 of the last 8 seasons (2019-20, 2021-22, 2023-24, 2024-25), indicating consistency among Italian competitors
- Low 24-hour trading volume on most contracts ($0-3 across venues) reflects limited recent activity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- Lazio is priced significantly lower (12-32 cents) despite being Serie A's second-place team, suggesting bookmakers view tournament format or knockout structure as favoring Inter
- The 9pp venue divergence indicates different market participant confidence levels or potential data discrepancies between platforms
- Polymarket's Inter contract at 68 cents shows stronger confidence than Kalshi's 70 cents despite lower overall platform probability, reflecting contract-level pricing variations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coppa-italia
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=coppa-italia

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.