# Atalanta vs Lazio Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 4 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coppaitaliagame
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:43.494Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-27

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 33% / Polymarket 28% — 5pp spread
- 24h volume: $370

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 25¢ | +1pp | $191 | kalshi | /markets/milan-vs-atalanta-winner-atalanta-kalshi-kxserieagame-26may10acmata-ata |
| Milan | 46¢ | +1pp | $179 | kalshi | /markets/milan-vs-atalanta-winner-milan-kalshi-kxserieagame-26may10acmata-acm |
| Winner: Lazio | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/coppa-italia-winner-lazio-polymarket-0x5f3b48421523e90ac67e37d6db683dd11029294f8ea1952ec2ba4b895643d871 |
| Tie | 27¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/milan-vs-atalanta-winner-tie-kalshi-kxserieagame-26may10acmata-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 32 |
| 2026-05-02 | 32 |
| 2026-05-08 | 32 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Lazio −4pp 32→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Atalanta +3pp 23→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 31% probability indicates that prediction market participants see Atalanta as roughly a 1-in-3 favorite to win against Lazio in an upcoming match. The pricing reflects Atalanta's recent form and table positioning in Serie A, though the modest 3 percentage-point gap between venues suggests genuine uncertainty rather than consensus. The outcome will be determined by head-to-head performance on match day, with factors like team injuries, tactical adjustments, and recent winning streaks influencing odds. Resolution occurs immediately upon match completion, making this a straightforward binary event tied to a specific fixture with no external variables affecting the result once play begins.

### Key factors

- Atalanta's current Serie A standing and recent form against top-half teams compared to Lazio's defensive record
- Injury status of key players on both squads, particularly in midfield and attack, which affects team composition for match day
- Home/away advantage if applicable, and historical head-to-head record in direct matchups
- Volume concentration on related contracts (notably Lazio vs Inter at 53¢ and 20¢) suggests market may be pricing Atalanta uncertainty differently across competition contexts
- The cross-venue gap of 3 percentage points between Kalshi and Polymarket indicates limited arbitrage opportunity and moderate confidence in the 31% level

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coppaitaliagame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=coppaitaliagame

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.