# Will Christina Blunt be the Republican nominee for CO-02

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 10 contracts — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coprimary
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:49.159Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $61K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melat Kiros | 75¢ | +8pp | $37K | kalshi | /markets/will-melat-kiros-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-co-kalshi-kxcoprimary-01d26-mkir |
| Diana DeGette | 23¢ | −5pp | $23K | kalshi | /markets/will-diana-degette-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-c-kalshi-kxcoprimary-01d26-ddeg |
| Alex Kelloff | 51¢ | +3pp | $481 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-kelloff-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-co-kalshi-kxcoprimary-03d26-akel |
| Jessica Killin | 91¢ | −1pp | $400 | kalshi | /markets/will-jessica-killin-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxcoprimary-05d26-jkil |
| Dwayne Romero | 42¢ | +10pp | $231 | kalshi | /markets/will-dwayne-romero-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-c-kalshi-kxcoprimary-03d26-drom |
| Joe Reagan | 6¢ | +3pp | $88 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-reagan-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-co-0-kalshi-kxcoprimary-05d26-jrea |
| Kelley Dennison | 72¢ | −17pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-kelley-dennison-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxcoprimary-02r26-kden |
| Christina Blunt | 23¢ | −2pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-christina-blunt-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxcoprimary-02r26-cblu |
| Eileen Laubacher | 96¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eileen-laubacher-be-the-democratic-nominee-fo-kalshi-kxcoprimary-04d26-elau |
| Jenna Preston | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jenna-preston-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-c-kalshi-kxcoprimary-04d26-jpre |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 26 |
| 2026-06-11 | 48 |
| 2026-06-18 | 39 |
| 2026-06-25 | 44 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Dwayne Romero −20pp 53→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Diana DeGette −19pp 51→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Melat Kiros +17pp 47→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Kelley Dennison −17pp 71→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Diana DeGette −15pp 64→49¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Christina Blunt becomes the Republican nominee for Colorado's 2nd Congressional District. At 46%, the market assigns her less than even odds compared to Kelley Dennison, who trades at 71% for the same nomination. The gap between their probabilities suggests that recent polling, endorsements, or fundraising reports favor Dennison. Blunt's nomination probability would increase with stronger primary performance metrics, higher name recognition in the district, or notable endorsements from party leadership. It would decrease if Dennison consolidates support or if Blunt's campaign faces fundraising challenges. The primary election itself will be the critical catalyst resolving this uncertainty. Until that vote occurs, factors like candidate visibility, donor backing, and district polling will continue to shape expectations.

### Key factors

- Kelley Dennison is trading 25 percentage points higher than Blunt (71% vs 46%), indicating market participants view her as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination
- No contracts for other Republican candidates in CO-02 appear in the current top list, suggesting Blunt and Dennison are the two main contenders
- 24-hour trading volume for the Blunt contract is zero, indicating minimal recent activity and uncertainty about conviction behind current pricing
- The probability requires Blunt to overcome a significant structural disadvantage relative to her main competitor before the primary vote
- District demographics, turnout expectations, and any recent campaign developments would materially shift these odds

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=coprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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