# Will the corn close price be above $445.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 19 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cornmon
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:49.323Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-29

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $42K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| above $107 | 70¢ | +6pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-107-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t107 |
| above $107.50 | 63¢ | +3pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1075-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t107.50 |
| above $108 | 57¢ | +6pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-108-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t108 |
| above $110 | 35¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-110-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t110 |
| above $109.50 | 40¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1095-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t109.50 |
| above $5013.99 | 7¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-501399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t5013.99 |
| above $108.99 | 51¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1089-kalshi-kxbrentw-26may0817-t108.99 |
| above $110.50 | 30¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1105-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t110.50 |
| above $110.99 | 41¢ | +6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1109-kalshi-kxbrentw-26may0817-t110.99 |
| above $5.92 | 57¢ | +4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-copper-close-price-be-above-592-usdlbs-on-kalshi-kxcopperd-26may0417-t5.92 |
| above $114 | 6¢ | −7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-114-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t114 |
| above $112 | 14¢ | −7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-112-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t112 |
| above $5.96 | 36¢ | +7pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-copper-close-price-be-above-596-usdlbs-on-kalshi-kxcopperd-26may0417-t5.96 |
| above $76.50 | 45¢ | +24pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-7650-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilverd-26may0417-t76.50 |
| above $115 | 3¢ | −6pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-115-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t115 |
| above $112.50 | 11¢ | −8pp | $814 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1125-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t112.50 |
| above $113 | 11¢ | −3pp | $629 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-113-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t113 |
| above $112.99 | 37¢ | +1pp | $579 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1129-kalshi-kxbrentw-26may0817-t112.99 |
| above $118.99 | 17¢ | −2pp | $61 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1189-kalshi-kxbrentw-26may0817-t118.99 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · above $76.50 +24pp 22→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · above $112.99 +13pp 24→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · above $118.99 +10pp 11→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · above $108.99 +9pp 39→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · above $76.50 −8pp 30→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market tracks whether corn futures will close above $445.99 on April 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT—a date that has already passed as of today (May 3, 2026). The 37% probability reflects the current consensus that corn did not close above that threshold on the specified date. Corn prices are primarily influenced by weather conditions affecting crop development, global supply dynamics, and macroeconomic factors like currency movements and demand from feed and ethanol sectors. Since the resolution date is in the past, this contract should resolve based on the actual closing price recorded on April 30, 2026. The market probability at this stage depends on data verification and any remaining confirmation of historical price records from that specific trading session.

### Key factors

- Actual corn futures closing price on April 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT is the deterministic factor; historical price data from CBOT or equivalent exchange records will provide final verification
- The 37% probability suggests traders assessed a two-thirds chance corn closed at or below $445.99 on that date, indicating bearish positioning in late April
- Contract resolution depends on accessing and confirming accurate historical closing prices from the relevant futures exchange for the exact time and date specified
- Any trading halts, data errors, or exchange reporting discrepancies on April 30 could affect final settlement determination
- The lag between the April 30 event date and current market date (May 3) means resolution should be imminent pending data confirmation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cornmon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cornmon

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