# Will Costco Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 93

> Above 93 leads at 95%, runner-up 90% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/costft
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.029Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above 93 at 95%
- Runner-up: Above 94 at 90%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $62

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 93 | 95¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-costco-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxcostft-26sep07-t93 |
| Above 94 | 90¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-costco-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxcostft-26sep07-t94 |
| Above 95 | 78¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-costco-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxcostft-26sep07-t95 |
| Above 96 | 26¢ | −26pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-costco-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxcostft-26sep07-t96 |
| Above 97 | 17¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-costco-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxcostft-26sep07-t97 |
| Above 103 | 15¢ | +8pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-costco-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxcostft-26sep07-t103 |
| Above 98 | 3¢ | +1pp | $55 | kalshi | /markets/will-costco-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxcostft-26sep07-t98 |
| Above 99 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-costco-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-b-kalshi-kxcostft-26sep07-t99 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 93 | Above 94 | Above 95 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| 2026-08-09 | 88 | 80 | 79 |
| 2026-08-10 | — | 83 | 80 |
| 2026-08-17 | 88 | 81 | 80 |
| 2026-08-23 | 90 | 85 | 82 |
| 2026-08-24 | — | 84 | — |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-22 · Above 97 −37pp 49→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 99 −34pp 38→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 98 −33pp 47→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 96 −29pp 69→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 96 −26pp 40→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract measures whether Costco's total monthly foot traffic in August 2026 will exceed 93 million visits. The 51% probability indicates traders slightly favor a result above this threshold, though the outcome remains uncertain. Costco's traffic typically reflects consumer spending patterns, economic confidence, and seasonal retail activity. August represents a back-to-school and late-summer shopping period, which historically drives warehouse traffic. The resolution will depend on actual foot-traffic data Costco reports, likely in late August or early September when the company releases monthly operational metrics. Economic conditions, gas prices, and employment levels heading into August will influence consumer behavior. The tight clustering of contracts around 93-96 million visits suggests traders view the likely outcome in this narrow band, with the 51%-49% split indicating genuine disagreement about whether August traffic stays below or above the 93 million threshold.

### Key factors

- Costco's reported monthly foot traffic for August 2026 must exceed 93 million visits to resolve above
- Seasonal patterns show August typically captures back-to-school spending and late-summer warehouse visits
- Recent macroeconomic indicators (employment, inflation, consumer confidence) in July-August will directly influence customer visits
- Gas prices and discretionary spending power in August affect the frequency and volume of warehouse visits
- The contract resolves based on Costco's official reported data, typically released in late August or early September

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/costft
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=costft

## License

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