# Coupe de France

> Winner: Lens leads at 73%, runner-up 28% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coupe-de-france
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.191Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-05

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Lens at 73%
- Runner-up: Winner: Nice at 28%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Lens | 73¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/coupe-de-france-winner-lens-polymarket-0xe55d11eb65a6893db9de288bfe7e0cac6a36045819579011978fb72037484f3a |
| Winner: Nice | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/coupe-de-france-winner-nice-polymarket-0x9e92295aaeff758a524b594296ac901c9f0dbdb8e8715d0653098dd092344ba4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Lens | Winner: Nice |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 69 | 30 |
| 2026-05-02 | 47 | 23 |
| 2026-05-07 | 68 | 33 |
| 2026-05-08 | 68 | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Winner: Lens −19pp 66→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Winner: Nice −12pp 35→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Winner: Nice +12pp 23→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Lens +12pp 53→65¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Winner: Lens +6pp 47→53¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The Coupe de France final is expected to feature Lens as the favored winner at 64% probability, with Nice as the primary alternative at 35%. This reflects current market assessment of the teams' relative strength heading into the match. The probability would shift based on team form, injuries to key players, and tactical adjustments in the days before the final. The match itself—scheduled for early June 2026—will definitively resolve this outcome. Market depth is limited, with minimal 24-hour volume on the Lens contract, suggesting these prices may not reflect deep liquidity. Any significant roster changes, unexpected eliminations, or shifts in momentum during remaining semifinal play could reshape these odds substantially.

### Key factors

- Lens contract priced at 65¢ reflects marginal edge, not dominant positioning
- Nice at 35¢ represents meaningful probability contingent on semifinal results
- Zero 24-hour volume on leading contract indicates thin market liquidity
- Final scheduled for early June 2026; outcomes depend on intervening tournament progression
- Current pricing based on pre-semifinal state; actual finalist identities will reset market assumptions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coupe-de-france
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=coupe-de-france

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.