# Strasbourg Alsace vs Nice Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 7 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coupedefrancegame
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:43.035Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 33% / Polymarket 36% — 3pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simone Venturini | 28¢ | −4pp | $520 | polymarket | /markets/venice-mayoral-election-winner-simone-venturini-polymarket-0x6d6088a604e583b280cfea2ab4a646d0f89b446f2e13cf440694735da7e697f8 |
| Janice Boylan | 15¢ | ±0 | $296 | polymarket | /markets/dublin-central-by-election-winner-janice-boylan-polymarket-0xc5c7e75579ebc7dd442e3a0bc40e47cbfcb641666ad3f8ea0bea24ae51d7523a |
| Andrea Martella | 72¢ | +2pp | $286 | polymarket | /markets/venice-mayoral-election-winner-andrea-martella-polymarket-0x02031465497d820bbdcc2a75d3c93d39e0ff7cbfa50d314707d71c6952f2db3a |
| Winner: Nice | 28¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/coupe-de-france-winner-nice-polymarket-0x9e92295aaeff758a524b594296ac901c9f0dbdb8e8715d0653098dd092344ba4 |
| Strasbourg Alsace | 37¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/angers-vs-strasbourg-alsace-winner-strasbourg-alsa-kalshi-kxligue1game-26may10angrcs-rcs |
| Tie | 28¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/angers-vs-strasbourg-alsace-winner-tie-kalshi-kxligue1game-26may10angrcs-tie |
| Angers | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/angers-vs-strasbourg-alsace-winner-angers-kalshi-kxligue1game-26may10angrcs-ang |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 10 |
| 2026-04-25 | 16 |
| 2026-05-02 | 35 |
| 2026-05-09 | 47 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Strasbourg Alsace +36pp 5→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Angers +24pp 5→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Andrea Martella −17pp 83→66¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Simone Venturini +15pp 16→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Winner: Nice −12pp 35→23¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/coupedefrancegame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=coupedefrancegame

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.