# Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026

> Above 0.3% leads at 94%, runner-up 82% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cpi
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.539Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-10

## Headline

- Leader: Above 0.3% at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 0.4% at 82%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.3% | 94¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-03-in-may-2026-above-03-kalshi-kxcpi-26may-t0.3 |
| Above 0.4% | 82¢ | +8pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-04-in-may-2026-above-04-kalshi-kxcpi-26may-t0.4 |
| Above -0.1% | 82¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-01-in-october-2026-above-0-kalshi-kxcpi-26oct-t-0.1 |
| Above -0.1% | 76¢ | −1pp | $852 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-01-in-june-2026-above-01-kalshi-kxcpi-26jun-t-0.1 |
| Above 0.2% | 58¢ | +2pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-02-in-july-2026-above-02-kalshi-kxcpi-26jul-t0.2 |
| Above 0.0% | 50¢ | −2pp | $299 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-00-in-june-2026-above-00-kalshi-kxcpi-26jun-t0.0 |
| Above 0.1% | 41¢ | −1pp | $118 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-01-in-june-2026-above-01-kalshi-kxcpi-26jun-t0.1 |
| Above 0.5% | 22¢ | ±0 | $972 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-05-in-may-2026-above-05-kalshi-kxcpi-26may-t0.5 |
| Above 0.2% | 22¢ | −13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-02-in-june-2026-above-02-kalshi-kxcpi-26jun-t0.2 |
| Above 0.3% | 13¢ | +10pp | $411 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-03-in-june-2026-above-03-kalshi-kxcpi-26jun-t0.3 |
| Above 0.5% | 13¢ | −2pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-05-in-july-2026-above-05-kalshi-kxcpi-26jul-t0.5 |
| Above 0.4% | 8¢ | +7pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-04-in-june-2026-above-04-kalshi-kxcpi-26jun-t0.4 |
| Above 0.4% | 7¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-04-in-july-2026-above-04-kalshi-kxcpi-26jul-t0.4 |
| Above 0.6% | 3¢ | −1pp | $596 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-06-in-may-2026-above-06-kalshi-kxcpi-26may-t0.6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 0.3% | Above 0.4% | Above -0.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 63 | — |
| 2026-05-10 | 77 | 64 | 83 |
| 2026-05-24 | 89 | 85 | 81 |
| 2026-05-25 | 85 | 85 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 92 | 80 | — |
| 2026-06-02 | 93 | 78 | 81 |
| 2026-06-07 | 95 | 84 | 85 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · Above 0.2% −28pp 56→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Above 0.2% −25pp 62→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Above 0.3% −24pp 39→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Above 0.4% −20pp 28→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Above 0.2% +19pp 37→56¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 43% chance that the Consumer Price Index will increase more than 0.4% month-over-month in September 2026. The current assessment reflects recent inflation data from earlier in 2026, with related contracts showing varying probabilities for different CPI thresholds in April—the 0.4% barrier sits between the 82¢ price (suggesting ~82% odds) and lower thresholds priced higher. The main drivers are the trajectory of price pressures through summer 2026 and whether sticky inflation components persist or continue moderating. The September 2026 CPI release, scheduled for early October 2026, will be the decisive moment that resolves this contract. Markets are pricing in a roughly even split between months with CPI gains above 0.4% versus those at or below that level.

### Key factors

- Recent April 2026 CPI data shows 0.4% MoM rises priced at 82¢ on Kalshi, providing a near-term baseline for inflation momentum
- Energy and food price volatility through summer months typically influences whether monthly CPI prints exceed 0.4%, with seasonal factors affecting transportation and utility costs
- The 43% probability implies markets expect roughly 57% odds of CPI rising 0.4% or less in September, suggesting modest disinflationary bias six months out
- Core inflation trends and wage growth data between now and September will determine whether price pressures accelerate or decelerate toward autumn
- The September 2026 CPI report (released early October) is the single catalyst that will definitively resolve this contract

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cpi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cpi

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.