# Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in May

> Above 0.0% leads at 96%, runner-up 90% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cpicore
Updated: 2026-07-10T02:20:48.870Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-11

## Headline

- Leader: Above 0.0% at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 0.1% at 90%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 96¢ | +1pp | $55 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-00-in-june-above-00-kalshi-kxcpicore-26jun-t0.0 |
| Above 0.1% | 90¢ | −4pp | $507 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-01-in-june-above-01-kalshi-kxcpicore-26jun-t0.1 |
| Above 0.1% | 85¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-01-in-august-above-01-kalshi-kxcpicore-26aug-t0.1 |
| Above 0.0% | 73¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-00-in-july-above-00-kalshi-kxcpicore-26jul-t0.0 |
| Above 0.0% | 60¢ | −23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-00-in-august-above-00-kalshi-kxcpicore-26aug-t0.0 |
| Above 0.2% | 55¢ | −48pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-02-in-august-above-02-kalshi-kxcpicore-26aug-t0.2 |
| Above 0.1% | 48¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-01-in-july-above-01-kalshi-kxcpicore-26jul-t0.1 |
| Above 0.2% | 40¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-02-in-july-above-02-kalshi-kxcpicore-26jul-t0.2 |
| Above 0.2% | 30¢ | +19pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-02-in-june-above-02-kalshi-kxcpicore-26jun-t0.2 |
| Above 0.4% | 10¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-04-in-august-above-04-kalshi-kxcpicore-26aug-t0.4 |
| Above 0.5% | 10¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-05-in-august-above-05-kalshi-kxcpicore-26aug-t0.5 |
| Above 0.6% | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-06-in-august-above-06-kalshi-kxcpicore-26aug-t0.6 |
| Above 0.8% | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-08-in-august-above-08-kalshi-kxcpicore-26aug-t0.8 |
| Above 0.9% | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-09-in-august-above-09-kalshi-kxcpicore-26aug-t0.9 |
| Above 0.4% | 3¢ | −3pp | $102 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-04-in-june-above-04-kalshi-kxcpicore-26jun-t0.4 |
| Above 0.3% | 3¢ | −2pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-03-in-june-above-03-kalshi-kxcpicore-26jun-t0.3 |
| Above 0.7% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-core-rise-more-than-07-in-august-above-07-kalshi-kxcpicore-26aug-t0.7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 0.0% | Above 0.1% | Above 0.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | 21 | 26 | 79 |
| 2026-06-25 | — | 77 | — |
| 2026-06-28 | 61 | 23 | — |
| 2026-07-02 | 87 | 40 | — |
| 2026-07-03 | — | 41 | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 96 | 82 | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | 78 | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-04 · Above 0.2% −26pp 53→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-05 · Above 0.0% −23pp 83→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-03 · Above 0.2% −21pp 35→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-06 · Above 0.1% +21pp 45→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Above 0.2% +19pp 19→38¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market prices the probability that core Consumer Price Index inflation will rise by more than 0.3% in May 2026 at 96%, indicating traders view a monthly increase above that threshold as highly likely. The elevated probability reflects recent inflation trends and the market's assessment of underlying price pressures from labor costs, supply chains, and demand conditions. May's CPI data, typically released in early June, will be the primary resolution event. Traders are pricing in sustained monthly increases; the 43-cent price on the 0.3% threshold versus 13 cents on 0.4% suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether gains exceed 0.4%, though both scenarios are considered probable. This framework allows participants to bet on inflation's intensity and whether monthly momentum remains elevated or begins moderating.

### Key factors

- Core CPI's monthly trajectory in recent releases—if April came in above 0.3%, May's pricing reflects expectation of similar momentum
- Labor market tightness and wage growth rates, which historically drive core inflation excluding food and energy
- Recent Federal Reserve policy stance and market expectations about interest rate paths, which influence inflation expectations
- The gap between the 0.3% contract (43¢) and 0.4% contract (13¢) indicates meaningful probability mass between 0.3–0.4% and lower confidence above 0.4%
- Supply-side factors including goods and shelter costs, which comprise the largest components of core CPI

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cpicore
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cpicore

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.