# Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in May 2026

> Above 2.6% leads at 72%, runner-up 60% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cpicoreyoy
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.618Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-12

## Headline

- Leader: Above 2.6% at 72%
- Runner-up: Above 2.2% at 60%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.6% | 72¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-26-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26jul-t2.6 |
| Above 2.2% | 60¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-22-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26jul-t2.2 |
| Above 2.8% | 60¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-28-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26jul-t2.8 |
| Above 2.8% | 57¢ | ±0 | $75 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-28-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26may-t2.8 |
| Above 3.0% | 51¢ | +6pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-30-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26jul-t3.0 |
| Above 2.9% | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-29-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26jul-t2.9 |
| Above 3.2% | 22¢ | −22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-32-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26jul-t3.2 |
| Above 2.9% | 11¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-29-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26may-t2.9 |
| Above 3.3% | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-33-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26jul-t3.3 |
| Above 3.1% | 8¢ | −15pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-31-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26jun-t3.1 |
| Above 3.0% | 6¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-30-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26jun-t3.0 |
| Above 2.4% | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-24-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26jul-t2.4 |
| Above 3.0% | 4¢ | −2pp | $416 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-30-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26may-t3.0 |
| Above 2.7% | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-27-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26jul-t2.7 |
| Above 3.1% | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-31-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26jul-t3.1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 2.6% | Above 2.2% | Above 2.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 75 | 52 | 55 |
| 2026-05-25 | 14 | 90 | 61 |
| 2026-05-31 | 13 | — | 59 |
| 2026-06-01 | 14 | 61 | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 66 | 61 | 60 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Above 2.7% −71pp 76→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Above 2.6% +48pp 8→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Above 3.2% +24pp 14→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-08 · Above 3.2% −22pp 38→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Above 2.9% −17pp 26→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 95% likelihood that core inflation for the 12-month period ending May 2026 will exceed 3.0% annually. Core CPI strips out volatile food and energy prices, making it a closely watched measure of underlying inflation trends. The high probability reflects market confidence that inflation will remain elevated despite Federal Reserve efforts to control it. Key drivers include recent monthly inflation readings, wage growth persistence, and expectations for monetary policy through mid-2026. The main catalyst for resolution will be the May 2026 CPI release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes data roughly mid-month. Markets are pricing lower probability for higher thresholds (2.8% and above command only 30 cents), suggesting consensus expects core inflation in the 3.0-3.5% range rather than substantially higher.

### Key factors

- Recent 12-month core CPI readings as of April 2026, which form the baseline for the May year-over-year comparison
- Monthly core inflation momentum through May 2026—whether new inflation is accelerating, stable, or decelerating relative to year-ago levels
- Federal Reserve policy stance and rate decisions through May 2026, which directly influence inflation expectations and real economic activity
- Wage growth and labor market tightness, which feed into pricing power and core service inflation
- The May 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release date (typically mid-June), which will definitively resolve the contract

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cpicoreyoy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cpicoreyoy
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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