# Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers

> U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.400?: Above 334.400 leads at 95%, runner-up 85% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cpindex
Updated: 2026-07-11T03:20:49.886Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-14

## Headline

- Leader: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.400?: Above 334.400 at 95%
- Runner-up: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.500?: Above 334.500 at 85%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.400?: Above 334.400 | 95¢ | +16pp | $310 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxcpindex-26jul14-t334.400 |
| U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.500?: Above 334.500 | 85¢ | +4pp | $788 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxcpindex-26jul14-t334.500 |
| U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.600?: Above 334.600 | 61¢ | +13pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxcpindex-26jul14-t334.600 |
| U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.700?: Above 334.700 | 35¢ | +4pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxcpindex-26jul14-t334.700 |
| U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.800?: Above 334.800 | 31¢ | +2pp | $455 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxcpindex-26jul14-t334.800 |
| U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.900?: Above 334.900 | 12¢ | −7pp | $491 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxcpindex-26jul14-t334.900 |
| U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 335.000?: Above 335.000 | 10¢ | −6pp | $681 | kalshi | /markets/will-consumer-price-index-for-all-urban-consumers-kalshi-kxcpindex-26jul14-t335.000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.400?: Above 334.400 | U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.500?: Above 334.500 | U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.600?: Above 334.600 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | 61 | 58 | 53 |
| 2026-07-07 | 89 | 81 | 71 |
| 2026-07-08 | 86 | 85 | 68 |
| 2026-07-09 | 80 | 83 | 60 |
| 2026-07-10 | 96 | 87 | 73 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-07 · U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.400?: Above 334.400 +28pp 61→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.800?: Above 334.800 +25pp 28→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.500?: Above 334.500 +23pp 58→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.900?: Above 334.900 +19pp 21→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.800?: Above 334.800 −19pp 53→34¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the Consumer Price Index for urban consumers will exceed 334.400 for June 2026 (using 1982-84 as a baseline). The high 96% probability suggests traders believe inflation remains elevated. The specific CPI level needed depends on the trajectory of price growth in the coming months—further price increases would push the outcome more likely, while disinflation would lower it. The June 2026 CPI release, typically published in early July, will definitively resolve this contract. The spread across contracts (ranging from 96% above 334.400 to 32% above 334.800) indicates uncertainty about whether inflation will settle in the mid-334s or push higher.

### Key factors

- Historical CPI data from late 2025 through early June 2026 will determine whether the index reaches or exceeds the 334.400 threshold
- The June 2026 CPI release date (early July 2026) provides the definitive resolution point; no estimation or projection affects the outcome
- Month-over-month inflation changes in the 2-3 months preceding June will be the primary drivers of whether this level is reached
- Energy and commodity price movements during spring 2026 could materially affect the final CPI figure
- The 64-percentage-point spread between the 96% contract (above 334.400) and the 32% contract (above 334.800) shows traders expect the final reading to cluster in a narrow band but are uncertain whether it lands in the lower or upper portion

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cpindex
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cpindex

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.