# Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in April 2026

> Above 4.0% leads at 97%, runner-up 97% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cpiyoy
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:12.903Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-12

## Headline

- Leader: Above 4.0% at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 3.9% at 97%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.0% | 97¢ | ±0 | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-40-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26may-t4.0 |
| Above 3.9% | 97¢ | +1pp | $111 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-39-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26may-t3.9 |
| Above 4.1% | 90¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-41-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26may-t4.1 |
| Above 3.6% | 78¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-36-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26jul-t3.6 |
| Above 3.8% | 67¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-38-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26jul-t3.8 |
| Above 3.2% | 64¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-32-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26jul-t3.2 |
| Above 3.0% | 61¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-30-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26jul-t3.0 |
| Above 3.3% | 61¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-33-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26jul-t3.3 |
| Above 3.4% | 61¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-34-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26jul-t3.4 |
| Above 3.9% | 61¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-39-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26jul-t3.9 |
| Above 4.0% | 60¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-40-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26jul-t4.0 |
| Above 3.7% | 60¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-37-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26jul-t3.7 |
| Above 4.2% | 47¢ | +2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-42-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26may-t4.2 |
| Above 4.2% | 30¢ | +2pp | $553 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-42-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26jun-t4.2 |
| Above 4.1% | 26¢ | +4pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-41-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26jul-t4.1 |
| Above 4.1% | 22¢ | ±0 | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-41-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26jun-t4.1 |
| Above 4.3% | 7¢ | +1pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-43-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26may-t4.3 |
| Above 4.4% | 4¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-44-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26may-t4.4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 4.0% | Above 3.9% | Above 4.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 71 | — |
| 2026-05-11 | 69 | 79 | 50 |
| 2026-05-25 | 94 | 97 | 92 |
| 2026-06-01 | 97 | 98 | 91 |
| 2026-06-06 | 96 | 98 | 89 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Above 3.7% +97pp 2→99¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Above 3.0% +60pp 10→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Above 3.2% +56pp 10→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Above 3.4% +56pp 11→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Above 4.1% +48pp 3→51¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 95% probability that the Consumer Price Index will show inflation above 3.9% for the 12-month period ending in April 2026. The high probability reflects recent inflation data and trajectory; markets are pricing in only a 5% chance that inflation falls to 3.9% or below by that endpoint. The main drivers are current CPI readings, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and labor market dynamics. Contract pricing shows declining conviction at higher thresholds—only 3 cents for above 4.0%—suggesting traders expect inflation in the 3.6–3.9% range rather than materially higher. The final April 2026 CPI release, scheduled for May 2026, will definitively resolve this question. Until then, traders are monitoring monthly inflation data, Fed communications, and economic growth signals for clues about whether disinflation continues or reverses.

### Key factors

- The 3-month trailing average of monthly CPI increases and the year-over-year inflation rate as of April 2026 will mechanically determine the outcome
- Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and forward guidance between now and April 2026 will influence inflation expectations and actual price pressures
- Labor market conditions, wage growth, and employment data are correlated with inflation persistence and will be tracked as leading indicators
- Commodity prices, energy costs, and global supply chain conditions remain material variables affecting consumer price levels
- The published CPI report for April 2026 (expected May 2026) is the single data release that will resolve this contract with certainty

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cpiyoy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cpiyoy
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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