# Will St. Kitts and Nevis Patriots win the 2026 Caribbean Premier League championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 7 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cpl
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:52.004Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-05

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Kitts and Nevis Patriots | 20¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-st-kitts-and-nevis-patriots-win-the-2026-cari-kalshi-kxcpl-26-skn |
| Guyana Amazon Warriors | 24¢ | +1pp | $260 | kalshi | /markets/will-guyana-amazon-warriors-win-the-2026-caribbean-kalshi-kxcpl-26-gaw |
| Trinbago Knight Riders | 27¢ | −1pp | $168 | kalshi | /markets/will-trinbago-knight-riders-win-the-2026-caribbean-kalshi-kxcpl-26-tkr |
| Barbados Royals | 7¢ | ±0 | $82 | kalshi | /markets/will-barbados-royals-win-the-2026-caribbean-premie-kalshi-kxcpl-26-bar |
| Antigua And Barbuda Falcons | 8¢ | +2pp | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-antigua-and-barbuda-falcons-win-the-2026-cari-kalshi-kxcpl-26-ant |
| Jamaica Kingsmen | 9¢ | +2pp | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamaica-kingsmen-win-the-2026-caribbean-premi-kalshi-kxcpl-26-jam |
| St. Lucia Kings | 9¢ | +3pp | $70 | kalshi | /markets/will-st-lucia-kings-win-the-2026-caribbean-premier-kalshi-kxcpl-26-stl |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | 14 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-06 · Antigua And Barbuda Falcons −9pp 10→1¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Guyana Amazon Warriors −6pp 28→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Jamaica Kingsmen +6pp 1→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Antigua And Barbuda Falcons +5pp 1→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Trinbago Knight Riders −4pp 26→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

St. Kitts and Nevis Patriots are assigned a 20% implied probability of winning the 2026 Caribbean Premier League championship, making them the fourth-favorite among the tournament's six teams. This probability reflects market assessments of the team's squad strength, recent performance history, and competitive depth relative to stronger favorites like Trinbago Knight Riders (39%) and Guyana Amazon Warriors (29%). The Patriots' championship odds are primarily driven by their roster composition and track record in the CPL, with movement likely tied to player acquisitions during the offseason and any injuries to key performers. The tournament itself will begin in August 2026 and conclude with the final in September, providing the definitive resolution of these probabilities through actual match results and playoff performance.

### Key factors

- St. Kitts and Nevis Patriots currently trade at 12¢ on Kalshi while Trinbago Knight Riders trade at 39¢, indicating the market views them as roughly one-third as likely to win the championship
- The team's 20% probability places them fourth among six CPL franchises, between Barbados Royals (13%) and Guyana Amazon Warriors (29%)
- No recent trades, signings, or roster moves are reflected in available data as of June 2026; squad composition changes during the offseason will materially affect their odds
- The 2026 CPL season is scheduled to begin in August, with the championship final occurring in September, allowing two months for team preparation and potential betting-relevant developments
- Trading volume on the Patriots contract is currently zero over 24 hours, suggesting limited recent market activity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads around the current 20% level

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cpl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cpl

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.