# CR Flamengo vs. CR Vasco da Gama - More Markets: CR Vasco da Gama (-2.5)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 38% across 19 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cr-flamengo-vs-cr-vasco-da-gama-more-markets-cr-vasco-da
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:50:53.958Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 38% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 37% / Polymarket 39% — 2pp spread
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 61¢ | ±0 | $7K | kalshi | /markets/flamengo-vs-vasco-da-gama-winner-flamengo-kalshi-kxbrasileirogame-26may03flavdg-fla |
| Vasco da Gama | 15¢ | +3pp | $769 | kalshi | /markets/flamengo-vs-vasco-da-gama-winner-vasco-da-gama-kalshi-kxbrasileirogame-26may03flavdg-vdg |
| Tie | 22¢ | +2pp | $472 | kalshi | /markets/flamengo-vs-vasco-da-gama-winner-tie-kalshi-kxbrasileirogame-26may03flavdg-tie |
| Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | −6pp | $306 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xeacd4b74856bcd1deffd3d1fa8f946524095752c552907e53b59734bfd8c9c9e |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) | 33¢ | −1pp | $206 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-2-polymarket-0x5283a21a15ec521f4337c8e4f501631b4d19582611acba8a1b641466f279dc97 |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) | 53¢ | ±0 | $204 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-1-polymarket-0x879d113aeafd2b7a7162ce786d626c812b0279d9c74ee8e411c2981c6c0c150c |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 50¢ | +1pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/vasco-da-gama-at-flamengo-totals-over-25-goals-sco-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03flavdg-2 |
| O/U 2.5 | 67¢ | +3pp | $43 | polymarket | /markets/shandong-taishan-fc-vs-shanghai-shenhua-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x92fa6c618d32593fd64e01106ddf8102f987fe612e1762d2e78e0d9a38f99a3a |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | −1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| Incheon United FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | +1pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x4ce71d662883de795b58a84a72031b1561a1c077297aabf78b6b2e3baf43a7ed |
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 8¢ | −2pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | −1pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x6bf7a43e176741b749890f4c3a5d781f0da3fb7ef5bc2476a1494d53c83df057 |
| O/U 2.5 | 56¢ | — | $6 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |
| O/U 2.5 | 64¢ | — | $2 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc6f8d09a9355a2998d4b5bd2319c8cef45cdb5936c1c335f76a41462f661d7bf |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x2651198ee21da63ab9659c2340246270878006e0d2e196e97b422ff660a2772e |
| O/U 2.5 | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x8c7c03c972df3c78569568b6d77b24c6d573ba28a550321416fef8f87b53b8bb |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 2.5 | 44¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x34dea0c254706b6fd913c43aba8ca3870604d03bfc3204ecc5448139d08c204d |
| O/U 2.5 | 62¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 18 |
| 2026-05-03 | 32 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored +34pp 15→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Flamengo +23pp 40→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Incheon United FC (-2.5) −17pp 35→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · Tie +7pp 10→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) −6pp 12→6¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cr-flamengo-vs-cr-vasco-da-gama-more-markets-cr-vasco-da
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cr-flamengo-vs-cr-vasco-da-gama-more-markets-cr-vasco-da

## License

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