# Will SOFR be above 4.25 by end of Q4 2026

> Above 3.00% leads at 91%, runner-up 88% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/creditc
Updated: 2026-06-26T09:20:48.862Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-04

## Headline

- Leader: Above 3.00% at 91%
- Runner-up: Above 3.25% at 88%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.00% | 91¢ | +3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-sofr-be-above-300-by-end-of-q4-2026-above-300-kalshi-kxcreditc-27jan05-t3.00 |
| Above 3.25% | 88¢ | +3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-sofr-be-above-325-by-end-of-q4-2026-above-325-kalshi-kxcreditc-27jan05-t3.25 |
| Above 3.50% | 85¢ | +5pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-sofr-be-above-350-by-end-of-q4-2026-above-350-kalshi-kxcreditc-27jan05-t3.50 |
| Above 3.75% | 68¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sofr-be-above-375-by-end-of-q4-2026-above-375-kalshi-kxcreditc-27jan05-t3.75 |
| Above 4.00% | 47¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sofr-be-above-400-by-end-of-q4-2026-above-400-kalshi-kxcreditc-27jan05-t4.00 |
| Above 4.25% | 24¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sofr-be-above-425-by-end-of-q4-2026-above-425-kalshi-kxcreditc-27jan05-t4.25 |
| Above 4.50% | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sofr-be-above-450-by-end-of-q4-2026-above-450-kalshi-kxcreditc-27jan05-t4.50 |
| Above 3.75% | 10¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-sofr-be-above-375-by-end-of-q2-2026-above-375-kalshi-kxcreditc-26jul01-t3.75 |
| Above 4.75% | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sofr-be-above-475-by-end-of-q4-2026-above-475-kalshi-kxcreditc-27jan05-t4.75 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 3.00% | Above 3.25% | Above 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | 88 | 87 | 84 |
| 2026-06-26 | 91 | 90 | 89 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Above 3.75% −8pp 19→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Above 3.75% +8pp 2→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Above 3.75% −6pp 11→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 3.50% +5pp 84→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 4.00% +5pp 43→48¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents a 91% chance that the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) will remain above 3.00% through the end of December 2026. The market is pricing in a high likelihood of rates staying elevated, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain restrictive policy longer than historical norms suggest or cut only modestly from current levels. The main driver is inflation persistence—if price pressures remain stubborn, rate cuts will be delayed or smaller; conversely, recession concerns or rapid disinflation would increase the probability of deeper cuts below 3.00%. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions at each scheduled meeting through December represent the primary catalyst, with monthly inflation data (CPI/PCE releases) and employment reports directly influencing Fed guidance. Market expectations will shift most sharply around major economic data releases and FOMC communications that signal rate-path shifts.

### Key factors

- Current SOFR levels and recent Fed action establish the baseline; SOFR would need to fall roughly 150–175 basis points from typical 2026 levels to break below 3.00% by year-end
- Inflation trajectory through Q4 2026—particularly PCE and core CPI—will determine whether the Fed maintains, pauses, or cuts rates; disinflation would increase the probability SOFR falls below 3.00%
- Labor market strength and unemployment trends; persistent job growth typically supports higher rates, while a sharp rise in unemployment would pressure SOFR downward
- Futures market pricing for Fed funds rates at end-2026 currently implies SOFR remaining in the 3.00–3.75% range under consensus scenarios
- Geopolitical shocks, credit events, or financial instability could force emergency rate cuts that would dramatically increase the odds SOFR falls below 3.00%

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/creditc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=creditc
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.