# Will the price of Creed Aventus be above $300 in 2026

> Above $300 leads at 87%, runner-up 82% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/creed
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:48.940Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $300 at 87%
- Runner-up: Above $310 at 82%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $300 | 87¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-creed-aventus-be-above-300-in-20-kalshi-kxcreed-27-300 |
| Above $310 | 82¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-creed-aventus-be-above-310-in-20-kalshi-kxcreed-27-310 |
| Above $320 | 78¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-creed-aventus-be-above-320-in-20-kalshi-kxcreed-27-320 |
| Above $330 | 42¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-creed-aventus-be-above-330-in-20-kalshi-kxcreed-27-330 |
| Above $340 | 39¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-creed-aventus-be-above-340-in-20-kalshi-kxcreed-27-340 |
| Above $350 | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-creed-aventus-be-above-350-in-20-kalshi-kxcreed-27-350 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $300 | Above $310 | Above $320 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | 2 | 13 | 13 |
| 2026-06-18 | 80 | 79 | 71 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | — | 78 |
| 2026-06-24 | 86 | 82 | 78 |
| 2026-06-25 | — | — | 77 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Above $330 +22pp 24→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Above $340 +14pp 23→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above $350 +11pp 20→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above $320 +7pp 71→78¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above $300 +6pp 80→86¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 17% chance that Creed Aventus, one of the most expensive fragrances on the market, will trade above $300 by the end of 2026. The low probability reflects fragrance pricing stability — Creed Aventus typically retails between $200–$250, and even in secondary markets rarely exceeds $300 except in limited or discontinued batches. The main upward pressure would come from extreme scarcity or significant inflation across the luxury goods sector; downward pressure stems from steady market supply and consumer price sensitivity. The resolution will be determined by checking verified retail and secondary-market prices in late 2026, particularly whether limited editions or regional pricing variations push above the threshold. Market liquidity remains modest, suggesting limited institutional participation in this niche prediction.

### Key factors

- Current Creed Aventus retail prices typically range $200–$250; secondary market rarely exceeds $300 outside discontinued lots
- Luxury fragrance prices have shown relative stability over 2024–2026, with inflation not substantially lifting premium segments
- The wider market structure shows declining probability at higher price tiers ($310 at 8%, $340 at 4%), indicating skepticism about sustained price escalation
- Resolution depends on identifying the official transaction price source (retail, authenticated secondary market, or specific region), which remains undefined
- 24h trading volume on the $300 contract ($19) is highest among the price tiers, suggesting active debate but no clear directional consensus

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/creed
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=creed

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.