# France vs Luxembourg Winner

> Closed. Final outcome: no. Last odds frozen 3 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/crickettestmatch
Updated: 2026-05-04T06:20:20.581Z
Category: general
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $585
- Resolved: no

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 10¢ | +7pp | $585 | kalshi | /markets/germany-vs-austria-winner-austria-kalshi-kxcrickettestmatch-26may03ausger-aus |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | 5 |
| 2026-05-03 | 12 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Austria +7pp 5→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 30% probability reflects market expectations for France to win a direct matchup against Luxembourg. The estimate sits between two major prediction venues, with Polymarket pricing France 6 percentage points higher than Kalshi, suggesting some disagreement about France's win probability. France enters as the heavy favorite given historical performance and rankings differences, but the specific match context—format, timing, and current team form—determines whether France sustains this edge or faces unexpected challenges. The primary driver of this probability is recent performance data and head-to-head historical records. Resolution depends on the match outcome, which will be determined on the scheduled fixture date.

### Key factors

- France's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record versus Luxembourg's comparative standing and recent results
- Historical head-to-head outcomes between the two nations and goal differential patterns
- Team composition, injury status, and roster availability at time of match
- Match context including tournament stage, venue, and whether it affects final positioning or playoff seeding
- Polymarket-Kalshi 6 percentage point gap suggests different weighting of available information across venues

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/crickettestmatch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=crickettestmatch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.