# Croatia vs. Ghana

> Croatia leads at 41%, runner-up 28% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/croatia-vs-ghana
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:59.935Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: Croatia at 41%
- Runner-up: Ghana at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/croatia-vs-ghana-croatia-polymarket-0x2cc359648ba6695498c169ceaa44c5444e0479102c453289c47ed9489e7f3e93 |
| Ghana | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/croatia-vs-ghana-ghana-polymarket-0x137ae42a26fde276b0fced88f502e88a67da8e6acbc2ff8760b7e24d99234192 |
| Draw (Croatia vs. Ghana) | 26¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/croatia-vs-ghana-draw-croatia-vs-ghana-polymarket-0x4b38300fb27196d5ca73ae2cca3d601e107cf305e00358d64b2cdeb712eb5c5d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Croatia | Ghana | Draw (Croatia vs. Ghana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 42 | 28 | 27 |
| 2026-05-02 | 41 | 29 | 26 |
| 2026-05-03 | 42 | 29 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the expected likelihood that Croatia will defeat Ghana in an upcoming match. The 31% aggregate masks a significant 22-percentage-point gap between venues, with Kalshi contracts showing much lower confidence in a Croatian win (13%) compared to Polymarket (35%). The discrepancy suggests traders may be weighing different information sets or applying different methodologies. Key drivers include each team's recent form, head-to-head history, squad composition, and any roster changes or injuries closer to match day. The resolution will occur when the match is played; the current market prices should adjust as game day approaches and any late-breaking team news emerges.

### Key factors

- 22-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests potential arbitrage opportunity or divergent information assumptions
- Top Kalshi contract prices Croatia at 25¢ while top Polymarket contracts range 21¢-58¢ depending on matchup, indicating liquidity concentration and venue-specific sentiment
- Ghana contract pricing at 30¢ and 45¢ on Polymarket implies roughly symmetric market expectations, though lower volume on Ghana-specific contracts ($0 24h vol) suggests less conviction
- Limited 24-hour volume on most contracts suggests thin liquidity; large trades could move prices significantly before match day
- Exact match date and final team lineups are critical inputs; any player unavailability or late roster changes could shift probabilities sharply

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/croatia-vs-ghana
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=croatia-vs-ghana

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.