# Croydon Mayoral Election Winner

> Rowenna Davis leads at 66%, runner-up 28% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/croydon-mayoral-election-winner
Updated: 2026-05-07T00:05:41.394Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Leader: Rowenna Davis at 66%
- Runner-up: Jason Perry at 28%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rowenna Davis | 66¢ | −1pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/croydon-mayoral-election-winner-rowenna-davis-polymarket-0x07a42fe9d9e912ac654582bca59cfa83b52d8c4f1b89a3746946530461e1f9c9 |
| Jason Perry | 28¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/croydon-mayoral-election-winner-jason-perry-polymarket-0x5dfca7c3143305a3591b3d66b7afbd15d1cdfafd8d3b0e4b1a44562f10727aaa |
| Peter Underwood | 8¢ | −2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/croydon-mayoral-election-winner-peter-underwood-polymarket-0xe3afe44ef56c757cb2b2dadc1d4a54a795e2b9bd24bdaac9cb9c13c99c229301 |
| Ben Flook | 3¢ | +1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/croydon-mayoral-election-winner-ben-flook-polymarket-0xc684207a6ab294f50b0589864adcc6bf06716186a6c07a5ab74a6bc82cffb7c3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Rowenna Davis | Jason Perry | Peter Underwood |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | — | 36 | 6 |
| 2026-04-27 | 55 | 35 | 8 |
| 2026-05-02 | 40 | 44 | 11 |
| 2026-05-08 | 67 | 28 | 3 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Rowenna Davis +14pp 40→54¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Rowenna Davis +13pp 54→67¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Jason Perry +13pp 31→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Rowenna Davis −11pp 51→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Jason Perry −11pp 36→25¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 36% probability reflects market expectations that a specific candidate will win the Croydon mayoral election, based on aggregated contract prices from Polymarket. This implies a roughly one-in-three chance of victory. Market participants appear to be pricing in uncertainty around candidate viability, local campaign dynamics, and voter preferences. The probability could shift upward if polling data favors the candidate or downward if rival candidates gain momentum or resources. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the actual election date, when results determine the outcome definitively. Until then, contract prices reflect traders' assessments of current information, which may be limited given the relatively modest trading volume on this specific race compared to higher-profile mayoral contests.

### Key factors

- Polymarket contract trading volume on Croydon ($1,128 in 24h volume) is substantially lower than Seoul mayoral contracts ($26,517), suggesting fewer informed traders are pricing this election
- The candidate's contract trades at 8¢, indicating asymmetric risk where the majority of traders believe the candidate is more likely to lose than win
- No recent polling data or campaign finance reports are referenced, meaning the market probability may be driven primarily by base rate assumptions about candidate quality or incumbency rather than fresh intelligence
- The election outcome depends on voter turnout patterns and local campaign dynamics in Croydon that may not be fully reflected in Polymarket pricing
- As the election date approaches, new information about candidate endorsements, campaign activity, or local issues would likely shift contract prices and implied probabilities

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/croydon-mayoral-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=croydon-mayoral-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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