# Crude Oil all time high by April 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 20 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/crude-oil-all-time-high-april-30
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:57.296Z
Category: markets · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 72% / Polymarket 23% — 49pp spread
- 24h volume: $209K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $175 | 8¢ | +3pp | $95K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-175-polymarket-0x7ae064ed7f3c9f4d201ce007b05b3a23f8e824170981c4d301f07301d554f451 |
| ↑ $200 | 4¢ | +1pp | $55K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-200-polymarket-0x5f879a52e5349db7f66d386ca75f1a9bb608fdd6a738a1582681613730b23281 |
| June 30, 2026 | 3¢ | +1pp | $18K | polymarket | /markets/bitcoin-all-time-high-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0x337ed4a919995ef9ba9d705b319055633a5dfdcb3ab97cf610009a7d11a9ade4 |
| September 30, 2026 | 9¢ | −12pp | $13K | polymarket | /markets/bitcoin-all-time-high-by-september-30-2026-polymarket-0x6123b5cc75c38ba9783f6c8ea260107b546c7d3454a8f9b5280c9921cc39f3d9 |
| $75 | 75¢ | +3pp | $11K | polymarket | /markets/crude-oil-cl-above-end-of-june-75-polymarket-0x40f8bd1249712c000fe454859eead3984281ccba71e98e4c30a971d15290a706 |
| $60 | 95¢ | ±0 | $8K | polymarket | /markets/crude-oil-cl-above-end-of-june-60-polymarket-0x30cbc7711849709ecf06fc715003adadfda2cb6c9862dd10882e39a1c40f565b |
| above $107 | 72¢ | +6pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-107-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t107 |
| June 30, 2026 | 3¢ | ±0 | $1K | polymarket | /markets/xrp-all-time-high-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0x853f5b131832a449be856e45255b02cfb089362d34858191057740ddb7e406ef |
| December 31, 2026 | 18¢ | +2pp | $735 | polymarket | /markets/bitcoin-all-time-high-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0x18076e7d0f58a52d3d4f311d0456306edf16d1873cf5eef27d3ff044153e9576 |
| September 30, 2026 | 10¢ | −1pp | $200 | polymarket | /markets/xrp-all-time-high-by-september-30-2026-polymarket-0x86d0232cd2d07900e00a49c1606863ad760618fa36861add2777839bd05b06af |
| September 30, 2026 | 7¢ | −2pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/ethereum-all-time-high-by-september-30-2026-polymarket-0x710ce15deba099608dd256df512394d11f8d02e5c38644cf88c9cf0752254d7f |
| 350M | 50¢ | ±0 | $52 | polymarket | /markets/will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-june-5-350m-polymarket-0x351b328835e3ff4d574ae836c9842a7dd72bad929d990098ce0976fb794fab9e |
| December 31, 2026 | 13¢ | −2pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/ethereum-all-time-high-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0x4ac1e1a9a61da989b9dfe246332309bd5e4a2284fd9d4998526fe6e38f6bfe8f |
| 375M | 84¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-june-5-375m-polymarket-0xd5cfe69869eee679f5b750e0da0518b9d66156e200efa9407ddf25b18fee641f |
| 300M | 8¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-june-5-300m-polymarket-0x3157cfa44e8a866095918d7c383503aeb5faaa42e0d626281e98b1c6991aeab4 |
| September 30, 2026 | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/solana-all-time-high-by-september-30-2026-polymarket-0x58412e1ecbb05d8351f7fa6d81ab733a06f3734d3f67d06aea35db61b6d21f9b |
| 275M | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-june-5-275m-polymarket-0x2db76ff226e5eb35295c6b701ba939f911a8c69cab4b406dfb9ebe40da40844f |
| December 31, 2026 | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/solana-all-time-high-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0xb5a536a4eb39626c11b66ad358c02cff11cf4f9cb7ee714d8241945bb2b9f7e9 |
| December 31, 2026 | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/xrp-all-time-high-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0x6639a69c079b43a001c9f27c3e774076b421738bef66d0f6542bc5af3f5bffc8 |
| 325M | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-june-5-325m-polymarket-0x718135d518c397ffca20bc77405eca43e439b8958c286149992dafe4f82dfcf7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | 27 |
| 2026-04-26 | 19 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · $60 +28pp 64→92¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · $60 −27pp 91→64¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · $75 −22pp 76→54¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · September 30, 2026 −21pp 28→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · September 30, 2026 +19pp 12→31¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/crude-oil-all-time-high-april-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=crude-oil-all-time-high-april-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

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