# Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June — $65

> $63 leads at 97%, runner-up 97% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/crude-oil-cl-above-june
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.601Z
Category: markets · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: $63 at 97%
- Runner-up: $60 at 97%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $281

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $63 | 97¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/crude-oil-cl-above-end-of-june-63-polymarket-0x3e09898ef048ff9724ea85edf576a2f01b92aa121d7f17405af1771458cfec3f |
| $60 | 97¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/crude-oil-cl-above-end-of-june-60-polymarket-0x30cbc7711849709ecf06fc715003adadfda2cb6c9862dd10882e39a1c40f565b |
| $56 | 97¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/crude-oil-cl-above-end-of-june-56-polymarket-0x004923fb8d79c027af9f61d7b426644e4e0e4e95984d0de0b1668ae573583c75 |
| $65 | 96¢ | +3pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/crude-oil-cl-above-end-of-june-65-polymarket-0x19809b31c5e72a9c7cfedfc83d221c8e62c3542f607ffc3a9986ede513d3b487 |
| $55 | 96¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/crude-oil-cl-above-end-of-june-55-polymarket-0x43fe6fb0027ca4e9c3a1cb99dcfa29f15a49febf7cf885278aee433cec660ecc |
| $70 | 94¢ | ±0 | $55 | polymarket | /markets/crude-oil-cl-above-end-of-june-70-polymarket-0x61992d3a5dbe51794dd3171406df8cd033743466de3242e1cfe65f176a8530ca |
| $75 | 86¢ | −2pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/crude-oil-cl-above-end-of-june-75-polymarket-0x40f8bd1249712c000fe454859eead3984281ccba71e98e4c30a971d15290a706 |
| $80 | 79¢ | +4pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/crude-oil-cl-above-end-of-june-80-polymarket-0x56c1e2a0689bf31e3346e80d851812f1b03efe8555eb279cc0b99e9a73f34e32 |
| $85 | 72¢ | +4pp | $208 | polymarket | /markets/crude-oil-cl-above-end-of-june-85-polymarket-0xae1cdaf54a721c39cab846843d3cf5aa5aa0187d262fbe093c793867db6aab57 |
| $90 | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/crude-oil-cl-above-end-of-june-90-polymarket-0x2c50e53f3546e82024279f67fc51db167b56d2d79580d731098d8d8862bd8140 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $63 | $60 | $56 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | 93 | — | — |
| 2026-05-11 | 93 | — | 95 |
| 2026-05-13 | 93 | 97 | 95 |
| 2026-05-25 | 96 | 94 | — |
| 2026-05-27 | 96 | 93 | 97 |
| 2026-06-01 | 95 | 95 | 96 |
| 2026-06-05 | 98 | 97 | 96 |
| 2026-06-07 | 97 | — | 98 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | — | 97 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · $85 −7pp 67→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · $90 +7pp 49→56¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · $85 +6pp 58→64¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · $85 +5pp 62→67¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · $85 +4pp 58→62¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 97% probability that crude oil will trade above $65 per barrel by the end of June 2026. The high confidence likely reflects current market conditions where oil is trading near or above this level, combined with the short time horizon (about 4 weeks) that limits major directional moves. The probability could shift if geopolitical tensions ease, production increases unexpectedly, or demand forecasts weaken—conversely, supply disruptions or escalating conflicts would support higher prices. The key catalysts include upcoming API and EIA inventory reports, any announcements from OPEC+ regarding production policy, and broader economic data affecting energy demand. The gap between the $65 contract (97%) and $75 contract (75%) suggests moderate uncertainty about sustained strength above current levels.

### Key factors

- Current WTI crude spot price relative to $65 strike and distance from contract expiration (~4 weeks)
- Recent OPEC+ production decisions and compliance rates affecting near-term supply
- Geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East or other major producing regions
- USD strength and real-interest-rate expectations, which inversely affect commodity prices
- Weekly API and EIA inventory reports showing US crude stock builds or draws

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/crude-oil-cl-above-june
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=crude-oil-cl-above-june
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

## License

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