# Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June — ↓ $60

> ↓ $85 leads at 46%, runner-up 42% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/crude-oil-cl-hit-june
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.724Z
Category: markets · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: ↓ $85 at 46%
- Runner-up: ↑ $105 at 42%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $333K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $85 | 46¢ | −4pp | $19K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-85-polymarket-0xa4c71c6f43ceb1dec4b91e60cf22a4480f0b73683a3ea4aaba812ca20cba17e3 |
| ↑ $105 | 42¢ | +1pp | $75K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-105-polymarket-0x86c4455035d81c512138b8e38ade7defdb46708d3ee43098cdc8429a7d3b9bd9 |
| ↓ $80 | 26¢ | −3pp | $23K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-80-polymarket-0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5 |
| ↑ $110 | 24¢ | +1pp | $57K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-110-polymarket-0x82033ffc908562008e86493dde6695b264bcbb2ac094995629a8e84d58a92940 |
| ↑ $115 | 18¢ | −1pp | $18K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-115-polymarket-0x46f19d5bedd6d601d597d308d86814245974014d8a108395a7690d7a099cacdd |
| ↑ $120 | 12¢ | +3pp | $53K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-120-polymarket-0xba8af64c1b08f322ca7f66f3cfdbdfd50c0eae6fc88d2fcf29c30ceb62682421 |
| ↑ $130 | 7¢ | +1pp | $17K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-130-polymarket-0xa5d0dfc81e6a87faa737df4ca52fae7e18b63d9f7568e364c6c7d8c45fb39e8b |
| ↓ $70 | 6¢ | ±0 | $21K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-70-polymarket-0xe3f8272f4957b7dcc492d988e5c7cd6dbb2f4111cd309571514a280938d617f1 |
| ↑ $140 | 4¢ | ±0 | $50K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-140-polymarket-0x0443a503a38b90446c8a3826db5ee1323144197ef2b4ed09bcdf545ac104dfcb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↓ $85 | ↑ $105 | ↓ $80 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 57 |
| 2026-05-12 | 59 | 78 | 47 |
| 2026-05-25 | 70 | 45 | 56 |
| 2026-06-01 | 62 | 42 | 36 |
| 2026-06-08 | 49 | 35 | 26 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · ↑ $105 +13pp 29→42¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · ↑ $105 +9pp 35→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · ↓ $80 −9pp 45→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · ↓ $85 −9pp 62→53¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · ↑ $105 −7pp 42→35¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents a 19% chance that crude oil will fall to $60 per barrel or below by the end of June 2026, roughly two months away. The low probability reflects current market pricing around $75-80 per barrel, which would require a significant decline to reach the target. Oil prices are primarily driven by supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and global demand forecasts. The main catalysts affecting this outcome include OPEC production decisions, U.S. economic data signaling recession risk, and any major supply shocks. Near-term inventory reports and central bank policy guidance will provide key signals about demand strength. The related contracts show markets price a $75 floor as highly likely (76¢) while larger declines face steeper odds, suggesting traders expect relative price stability or strength over the next 60 days.

### Key factors

- Crude oil must decline approximately 15-20% from typical current levels to reach $60, a move requiring either sustained demand destruction or unexpected supply surge
- OPEC+ production decisions and compliance rates directly influence supply-side constraints; any announced cuts support higher prices while increased output enables declines
- U.S. economic growth data, manufacturing reports, and employment figures over May-June will signal demand trajectory; recession signals would increase downside probability
- Geopolitical developments in major producing regions (Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) can trigger supply shocks that counteract demand-driven price pressure
- Implied volatility reflected in contract pricing shows $75 is priced as highly probable by end of June, limiting room for sharp declines without fundamental deterioration

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

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