# Cruzeiro EC vs. CA Mineiro

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 20 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cruzeiro-ec-vs-ca-mineiro
Updated: 2026-05-03T22:35:51.008Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $181

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro EC | 38¢ | −2pp | $102 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-cruzeiro-ec-polymarket-0xd752fa28fa9f7e7604ed1798ca5cae8d43b295e23ae4f7760be2c8e39120fd21 |
| Draw (CA Juventud vs. CA Mineiro) | 26¢ | — | $38 | polymarket | /markets/ca-juventud-vs-ca-mineiro-draw-ca-juventud-vs-ca-m-polymarket-0xdb36e31bcd15ab88701a67d073f00dd1ff8040493e190149c679a6c0c36452ca |
| CA Juventud | 27¢ | −1pp | $34 | polymarket | /markets/ca-juventud-vs-ca-mineiro-ca-juventud-polymarket-0xdb8d8265276d662caa1bff0c28a8f0a018192ab5ff9d3385ddc7cc65be0e8a56 |
| CA Mineiro | 47¢ | +2pp | $7 | polymarket | /markets/ca-juventud-vs-ca-mineiro-ca-mineiro-polymarket-0xf231de5fa70f432ee1aca14404d45d024adcbdb29c367b1a3ac6a1baf2573613 |
| Cruzeiro EC (-1.5) | 16¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0xd7d8f701629d5d13a4cf1486051b095bc3c1e49e9f18dd9acfa8b98c62276414 |
| O/U 3.5 | 23¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0xde80960f08969ebf88300a8bf7a178b5c5d6670690378c58f698936350afc4da |
| CD Universidad Católica (-1.5) | 10¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x49cffaca26e5e3c0cba9192ada82a59cb714e96f7423af67992fb77b31da0f8c |
| Draw (CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-draw-cd-univ-polymarket-0xad799613dfc60801047dedeee3bb3f8a3d581e99b9e8cc1f0ce96c5525a8ab4b |
| CD Universidad Católica (-2.5) | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x34cc52af92fd22facecab82444be83c5c419ddbc61c78acd8335b86e7f0f06dd |
| Cruzeiro EC (-2.5) | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x3e4bfc6c120a70f2889df5649df1af0ebb4d2b13b09aff89a35f48b860b877e0 |
| O/U 1.5 | 70¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0xe4a29d751d14018d8448c1e19597c562acff51a0ca472d9aab10de6d4f1d7751 |
| O/U 2.5 | 45¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x164f43ce7d33f14d2354498cca82981a89108d89e5307ca5643ba6fa232e5e38 |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x31951d2799e3e0398cb83cd160ba9c30e693bd31ac882b8c695641ddb549fba5 |
| Both Teams to Score | 55¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0xb669de478d0b7262fc30fed5c561c0c2834e836ba14fd3a698670dcb88721baf |
| CD Universidad Católica | 34¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-cd-universid-polymarket-0xd2fbb137201cc3ee94532f4c623ac76b8aedfe14d74b02c60633472a1e5754bd |
| O/U 1.5 | 76¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-juventud-vs-ca-mineiro-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xe6b23a2d52a1dbe48299b8d5931a8055b30f3e657f9ad4da6fae93dbea6029ea |
| O/U 3.5 | 28¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-juventud-vs-ca-mineiro-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x1768e0527dcc99f6f11410b5b532846f500949e23b407e6ba87af1191495f921 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-juventud-vs-ca-mineiro-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x8d75f49efcdf88d7c546646b5e4b246bb9fdc2c357cadecbe7cae952ea1d344f |
| Both Teams to Score | 56¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-juventud-vs-ca-mineiro-more-markets-both-teams-polymarket-0xe3945e25d03e3d6e0edb76dca52dc3ca73fd4843d1db940f67cead985e77a082 |
| CA Juventud (-2.5) | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-juventud-vs-ca-mineiro-more-markets-ca-juventud-polymarket-0x75285d69f3206ea36f5c9eafda3b9fdd48eebb805c6fd767f271e4767ee191d1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 44 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 31 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the assessed likelihood that Cruzeiro EC will defeat CA Mineiro in an upcoming match. The 31% aggregate probability sits below the implied odds on most individual contracts, with Kalshi showing notably higher confidence at 48% compared to Polymarket's 30% average. The gap between venues suggests different market compositions and potentially different information sets. Key drivers include each team's current form, recent head-to-head performance, home-field advantage if applicable, and injury status. The match itself—its date and venue—would be the primary catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, as actual performance will either confirm or contradict these probabilistic assessments.

### Key factors

- Kalshi's single contract prices Cruzeiro's chances at 48%, an 18-percentage-point premium over Polymarket's 30% average, indicating material disagreement about win probability
- Polymarket's 12 contracts show relative stability (prices cluster around 30-51%), suggesting broader consensus than Kalshi but lower confidence in Cruzeiro's chances
- Match outcome depends on identifiable factors including current league position, recent form, head-to-head historical records, and player availability that will be resolved on match day
- The 51¢ price on Cruzeiro's moneyline at Polymarket implies roughly even odds with the underdog option, creating asymmetry with the 31% blended probability
- Zero or near-zero 24h volume on derivative markets (O/U 4.5, Both Teams to Score, spread) suggests limited liquidity and possible stale pricing in secondary contracts

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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