# Will crypto be regulated in the US?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 4 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/crypto-regulation
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:08.193Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-04

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $82

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 18¢ | −1pp | $71 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-prohibits-members-of-congres-kalshi-kxstockbanhouse-27jan01 |
| Before Jan 4, 2027 | 13¢ | ±0 | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-bill-that-restricts-snap-benefits-become-la-kalshi-kxsnaprestrict-27-jan04 |
| Before July 2026 | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-prohibits-members-of-congres-kalshi-kxstockbanhouse-26jul01 |
| By Jan 1, 2027 | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/ai-regulation-by-2027-by-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxailegislation-27-jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 25 |
| 2026-05-24 | 19 |
| 2026-06-01 | 11 |
| 2026-06-08 | 15 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Before 2027 −3pp 23→20¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/crypto-regulation
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=crypto-regulation

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.