# Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026

> Stellar Lumens (XLM) leads at 42%, runner-up 20% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cryptoreturny
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:50.749Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Stellar Lumens (XLM) at 42%
- Runner-up: Ripple (XRP) at 20%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stellar Lumens (XLM) | 42¢ | −1pp | $315 | kalshi | /markets/which-of-these-cryptocurrencies-will-have-a-positi-kalshi-kxcryptoreturny-26-xlm |
| Ripple (XRP) | 20¢ | +1pp | $154 | kalshi | /markets/which-of-these-cryptocurrencies-will-have-a-positi-kalshi-kxcryptoreturny-26-xrp |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | 16¢ | +2pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/which-of-these-cryptocurrencies-will-have-a-positi-kalshi-kxcryptoreturny-26-doge |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 14¢ | +1pp | $383 | kalshi | /markets/which-of-these-cryptocurrencies-will-have-a-positi-kalshi-kxcryptoreturny-26-btc |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 13¢ | −2pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/which-of-these-cryptocurrencies-will-have-a-positi-kalshi-kxcryptoreturny-26-eth |
| Solana (SOL) | 12¢ | −1pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/which-of-these-cryptocurrencies-will-have-a-positi-kalshi-kxcryptoreturny-26-sol |
| Chainlink (LINK) | 11¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-of-these-cryptocurrencies-will-have-a-positi-kalshi-kxcryptoreturny-26-link |
| Litecoin (LTC) | 9¢ | −2pp | $111 | kalshi | /markets/which-of-these-cryptocurrencies-will-have-a-positi-kalshi-kxcryptoreturny-26-ltc |
| Polkadot (DOT) | 8¢ | −2pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/which-of-these-cryptocurrencies-will-have-a-positi-kalshi-kxcryptoreturny-26-dot |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | 6¢ | −7pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/which-of-these-cryptocurrencies-will-have-a-positi-kalshi-kxcryptoreturny-26-shiba |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Stellar Lumens (XLM) | Ripple (XRP) | Dogecoin (DOGE) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 17 | 22 | 21 |
| 2026-06-12 | 49 | 20 | 30 |
| 2026-06-19 | 59 | 22 | 24 |
| 2026-06-24 | 47 | 19 | 16 |
| 2026-06-25 | 46 | — | 18 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Chainlink (LINK) −9pp 22→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Dogecoin (DOGE) −8pp 24→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Shiba Inu (SHIB) −7pp 16→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Stellar Lumens (XLM) −6pp 56→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Polkadot (DOT) −4pp 19→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents traders' assessment that Bitcoin will finish 2026 with positive returns compared to its price at year-start. At 43%, Bitcoin is favored among the listed cryptocurrencies but remains below even odds. The current level reflects Bitcoin's 2026 performance so far—with the year more than one-third complete, traders are pricing in both realized gains to date and uncertainty around macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and technical market dynamics through year-end. Factors pushing this probability higher include continued institutional adoption or favorable regulatory clarity; factors pushing it lower include broader market downturns, tightening monetary policy, or major technical resistance. The resolution date is December 31, 2026, when Bitcoin's year-to-date return will be finalized and compared against its January 1, 2026 opening price.

### Key factors

- Bitcoin's year-to-date price performance as of May 3, 2026 compared to its January 1, 2026 opening price, which directly influences the probability of positive annual returns
- Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions and interest rate trajectory through 2026, which historically correlate with cryptocurrency market movements
- Regulatory announcements or legislative changes affecting cryptocurrency trading, custody, or taxation in major markets
- Competitive performance of other listed cryptocurrencies in the multi-outcome contract, which may shift capital allocation between assets
- Technical price levels and trading volume patterns that indicate strength or weakness in Bitcoin's uptrend through year-end

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cryptoreturny
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cryptoreturny

## License

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