# CS Cienciano vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos - More Markets: CD Comerciantes Unidos (-1.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cs-cienciano-vs-cd-comerciantes-unidos-more-markets-cd
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 | 44¢ | — | $19K | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0xcdb8fe0b21ea323726b72ece8dcc0d30833ef8024499592b6636fb44338544e4 |
| Academia Puerto Cabello (-1.5) | 24¢ | +36pp | $695 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x4a12042216de3e5aae5cd32778902b842db86baf2cf7171b9e5651f34bdd15f7 |
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 1.5 | 72¢ | −3pp | $191 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x4a9cea80bdc446048226a183870a59750f582f14c8f29f1c4634743193e4f5f4 |
| O/U 4.5 | 11¢ | −2pp | $135 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x57efa30b3c2f0e8a06f15a8aacc77ba0ad4aebf88d388bec3b4af0b81e84fc4b |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | +2pp | $59 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0xc7befbe440ede25371adc8b78ebabaa40aa67d60eccbd7552d804e073947da6f |
| Both Teams to Score | 53¢ | −19pp | $21 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x3760860d50243405f52ebd806b1a3ef70a932c0dfaa01db8b1282514a03686e3 |
| CS Cienciano (-1.5) | 8¢ | −14pp | $18 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0x9c88781673f99b1adbeed2763c6d18ddb6c360f7f54f334402520facc88f2195 |
| Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5) | 10¢ | +9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/academia-puerto-cabello-vs-cs-cienciano-more-marke-polymarket-0xfe442ee170c5214e6c6951ef7949afd2834cfd0079dac5801f9fd9f8a1a9dd9c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 25 |
| 2026-05-03 | 32 |
| 2026-05-06 | 35 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Academia Puerto Cabello (-1.5) +36pp 20→56¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Both Teams to Score −19pp 54→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · CS Cienciano (-1.5) −14pp 22→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Academia Puerto Cabello (-2.5) +10pp 13→23¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

A 31% probability indicates that CD Comerciantes Unidos is favored to lose by more than 1.5 goals to CS Cienciano in their upcoming match. This reflects expectations that Cienciano will win by a decisive margin. The current level reflects the relative strength of the two teams in Peru's football league and recent form. The main factor driving this probability is the teams' recent performance records and head-to-head history. The match itself—scheduled for a specific date in the 2026 season—is the primary catalyst that will resolve this market, as the final score will determine whether Comerciantes Unidos covers the 1.5-goal spread. Changes in team injuries, lineup changes, or shifts in league standings before kickoff could move this probability materially.

### Key factors

- CS Cienciano's recent win-loss record and goal differential compared to CD Comerciantes Unidos
- Head-to-head historical results between the two teams, including venue (home/away) performance
- Current league standings and points differential that indicate relative competitive strength
- Injury reports or lineup changes for either team announced before match day
- Weather conditions or other field factors that could affect play style and scoring patterns

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cs-cienciano-vs-cd-comerciantes-unidos-more-markets-cd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cs-cienciano-vs-cd-comerciantes-unidos-more-markets-cd

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