# CS Cristal vs. Cusco FC - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 18 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cs-cristal-vs-cusco-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:51.837Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $204

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) | 53¢ | ±0 | $204 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-1-polymarket-0x879d113aeafd2b7a7162ce786d626c812b0279d9c74ee8e411c2981c6c0c150c |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata-more-markets-b-polymarket-0xc3eb9b4a15caac51db69e318b2a5f5171b03f8f9b1510d80f15a712973f7d2bb |
| O/U 3.5 | 26¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x53c14f110455aa30b1baf8ecadf89cb258aa7ea917f853b89774c464acbe56ac |
| SE Palmeiras (-1.5) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-se-palmeir-polymarket-0x32804cd439c1bfca4c202fce84583e79a3c404f6c6991c23b68fdb2698372971 |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-both-teams-polymarket-0x8b5451274c64477bcff83d70ee4344ff92dc476aa0d1b1ee30f39bdade2aa1df |
| Cusco FC (-1.5) | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata-more-markets-c-polymarket-0x413b3282f41f1ebe3e0b68a359bc46360565eb963fd99e6d503c33c580dea054 |
| O/U 1.5 | 73¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x7b3618cc383dee32b5928783e21910b64d9ee9e8871dccdbe77b4683d145b693 |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x85655ce178862105d744d537a01a7dc103ead9e540db5e64127c181942a3e0c8 |
| O/U 3.5 | 19¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xa6a15833c581768a002f01eb488618a87caaa83aa844b681a58eff1ba0332cf5 |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xddd281fea164268b7a430b9b264ba88f9c5927b2e82311c6c8d976912a063d6c |
| Estudiantes de La Plata (-2.5) | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata-more-markets-e-polymarket-0xb7999bbb6f827da87881ba43c9f38b587d30f70a89f39f367ddd2ffb26d65ff6 |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x6c1549b4f18c127ba75daebe83e34495d6143b3c1255994e597bb51932b9222e |
| SE Palmeiras (-2.5) | 15¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-se-palmeir-polymarket-0x56031e4fd8f85ab1ef6acfe6bf455fa80486505d672c7fa32ade47ef005c4746 |
| CS Cristal (-1.5) | 8¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-cs-cristal-polymarket-0xfaa9e3aad297692328fb6209ca47781ac3957e835eda579a113bd8745f22cc5a |
| Cusco FC (-2.5) | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata-more-markets-c-polymarket-0x8b94a2509812397cc85e1c647ddea04b71fe3cf51ddf98ec6148de3a49b5391e |
| Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5) | 18¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata-more-markets-e-polymarket-0xedbf9830a33f8b754e3d46edd1a8faf0db2532a9c6a68dd43db47330b2f1a9d2 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x5a357fd5e5b4f4b3c292234d51c5abddcf53843f4fc37d6da52e749e4a1ae2d8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 39¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cusco-fc-vs-estudiantes-de-la-plata-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x21404a09e0d720a9cb71040ddde025d49ca327df173335b1a5867185fca21e39 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 50 |
| 2026-05-02 | 36 |
| 2026-05-03 | 25 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · CS Cristal (-1.5) +8pp 11→19¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 28% probability that CS Cristal versus Cusco FC will generate additional trading markets beyond those already established. The current pricing suggests participants believe the matchup has moderate but not high likelihood of attracting supplementary betting interest. Volume across related contracts remains light, with most top-correlated markets showing under $310 in 24-hour activity, indicating limited trader conviction either direction. The resolution depends on whether market operators determine sufficient demand exists to expand the contract offerings. Key factors include the teams' league status, expected match attendance and media coverage, and typical market expansion patterns for similar regional fixtures. As the match approaches, clearer information about fan interest and betting demand will either validate or challenge the current probability estimate.

### Key factors

- Historical frequency of market expansion for Peruvian league matches of this competitive tier and regional prominence
- Current trading volume on existing CS Cristal and Cusco FC contracts as a proxy for underlying audience size
- Whether either team qualifies for playoff or championship-deciding scenarios that typically trigger additional derivative markets
- Geographic and temporal alignment with peak betting windows in target markets
- Comparative market depth for similar matchups in the same league over the past 90 days

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cs-cristal-vs-cusco-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cs-cristal-vs-cusco-fc-more-markets

## License

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