# CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-markets-cs
Updated: 2026-05-07T00:35:50.121Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 68%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 49%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $57K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 68¢ | −24pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0xd8a7d5d547100b2270933248df7428d9017f6b931f9308bed03ab382d22b4976 |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | −17pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0x9ff78c27fda30e5b9dbe59ba5899c2dd5001db91eb9f6991bba3e152776590df |
| O/U 2.5 | 42¢ | −20pp | $54K | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0x7353429eea6a19c8f51656bb2b78b9febb4e23463eb4f3115e62e575cf46ad9d |
| O/U 3.5 | 20¢ | −8pp | $552 | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0x8b09a61747807aac72d01b9c57762c496de365271792470e7f0828c65206fc9e |
| CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5) | 18¢ | −6pp | $125 | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0x43d406716ebb5b3949e627516fd9fd8163a81dc7b6dcf2d7c86d8f037121e39b |
| Fluminense FC (-1.5) | 11¢ | −6pp | $123 | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0x5fff26d17fdf67b340805d5b33198f2874e8301b3e6629c8e8109612edb03c5a |
| O/U 4.5 | 8¢ | +2pp | $43 | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0xb4cd80e3412a2737eb14d990736e8d6adfad75e6aac6bd32eeecb8864b8104dc |
| CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5) | 5¢ | +3pp | $69 | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0x4fe6145be9c1a8444114672c2bbfc3eea1f40e63269229c5a134c0a62b097662 |
| Fluminense FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | +10pp | $154 | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0xff496f3de17ada028aa13a378c1749532a6b538409094f56ea1734e14ce81114 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | — | 51 | 43 |
| 2026-05-06 | 67 | 48 | 40 |
| 2026-05-07 | 43 | 31 | 20 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · O/U 1.5 −24pp 67→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 2.5 −20pp 40→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Both Teams to Score −17pp 48→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Fluminense FC (-1.5) −17pp 27→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5) −17pp 22→5¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects traders' assessment that CS Independiente Rivadavia has an 18% chance of winning their match against Fluminense FC with a -1.5 goal spread, meaning Rivadavia would need to win by at least two goals. The relatively low probability suggests Fluminense is favored, which aligns with the Brazilian club's higher historical profile and current standing. The probability is primarily driven by team form, recent head-to-head records, and home-field advantage factors. The match itself—when it is scheduled—will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, as the outcome will either confirm the market's lean toward Fluminense or prove traders underestimated Rivadavia's capacity for a decisive victory.

### Key factors

- Fluminense's recent league performance and position in their domestic competition versus Rivadavia's current form and ranking
- Home-field status: whether Rivadavia plays at home or away, as this significantly affects win probability by multiple percentage points
- Head-to-head history between these clubs if available, including goal differentials and competitive context from previous meetings
- Injury status and squad availability of key players on both sides leading up to match day
- Odds movement on competing markets for this same fixture, which may indicate late information affecting trader positioning

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-markets-cs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-markets-cs

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