# CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:50:26.603Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 68%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 49%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $57K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 68¢ | −24pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0xd8a7d5d547100b2270933248df7428d9017f6b931f9308bed03ab382d22b4976 |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | −17pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0x9ff78c27fda30e5b9dbe59ba5899c2dd5001db91eb9f6991bba3e152776590df |
| O/U 2.5 | 42¢ | −20pp | $54K | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0x7353429eea6a19c8f51656bb2b78b9febb4e23463eb4f3115e62e575cf46ad9d |
| O/U 3.5 | 20¢ | −8pp | $552 | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0x8b09a61747807aac72d01b9c57762c496de365271792470e7f0828c65206fc9e |
| CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5) | 18¢ | −6pp | $125 | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0x43d406716ebb5b3949e627516fd9fd8163a81dc7b6dcf2d7c86d8f037121e39b |
| Fluminense FC (-1.5) | 11¢ | −6pp | $123 | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0x5fff26d17fdf67b340805d5b33198f2874e8301b3e6629c8e8109612edb03c5a |
| O/U 4.5 | 8¢ | +2pp | $43 | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0xb4cd80e3412a2737eb14d990736e8d6adfad75e6aac6bd32eeecb8864b8104dc |
| CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5) | 5¢ | +3pp | $69 | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0x4fe6145be9c1a8444114672c2bbfc3eea1f40e63269229c5a134c0a62b097662 |
| Fluminense FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | +10pp | $154 | polymarket | /markets/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-m-polymarket-0xff496f3de17ada028aa13a378c1749532a6b538409094f56ea1734e14ce81114 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | — | 51 | 43 |
| 2026-05-06 | 67 | 48 | 40 |
| 2026-05-07 | 43 | 31 | 20 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · O/U 1.5 −24pp 67→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 2.5 −20pp 40→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Both Teams to Score −17pp 48→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Fluminense FC (-1.5) −17pp 27→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5) −17pp 22→5¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 52% probability indicates that traders currently assess CS Independiente Rivadavia as slightly more likely than Fluminense FC to win their matchup. This reflects the market's attempt to price relative team strength, current form, and home-field advantage. The probability would increase if Rivadavia demonstrates strong recent results or if Fluminense faces injury concerns; it would decrease if Fluminense shows improved performance or Rivadavia stumbles. The match outcome itself will resolve the contract when the game concludes. Notably, the related contract on the same matchup pricing Independiente Rivadavia at -1.5 goals (18¢) suggests moderate confidence in Rivadavia's advantage, though the low trading volume ($5 in 24 hours) indicates limited market depth and potential pricing inefficiency.

### Key factors

- The 52% leader probability exceeds the 36¢ Fluminense win contract on the same match, suggesting the market structure may be pricing uncertainty differently across contract types or experiencing low liquidity constraints
- Recent head-to-head records, league standings, and seasonal form of both clubs would directly influence whether traders view this as close to a coin flip or materially favor either side
- Home-field advantage and location of the match (if applicable) represent a concrete factor that affects win probabilities for comparable teams
- Injury status and lineup availability for key players on either squad can shift expectations by multiple percentage points depending on player quality
- The match date and time relative to the current market observation date determines whether the probability reflects pre-match expectations or has narrowed based on team news

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cs-independiente-rivadavia-vs-fluminense-fc-more-markets

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.