# Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Season 1

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 15 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cs2
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.427Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Mongolz | 6¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-mongolz-win-pgl-astana-the-mongolz-kalshi-kxcs2-ast26-mglz |
| Spirit | 32¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-spirit-win-pgl-astana-spirit-kalshi-kxcs2-ast26-ts |
| Team Falcons | 30¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-team-falcons-win-pgl-astana-team-falcons-kalshi-kxcs2-ast26-fal |
| Aurora Gaming | 3¢ | +4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-aurora-gaming-win-pgl-astana-aurora-gaming-kalshi-kxcs2-ast26-aur |
| Vitality | 67¢ | −6pp | $979 | kalshi | /markets/will-vitality-win-iem-atlanta-vitality-kalshi-kxcs2-iematl26-vit |
| PARIVISION | 6¢ | ±0 | $845 | kalshi | /markets/will-parivision-win-pgl-astana-parivision-kalshi-kxcs2-ast26-prv |
| FURIA | 8¢ | +1pp | $788 | kalshi | /markets/will-furia-win-pgl-astana-furia-kalshi-kxcs2-ast26-furia |
| G2 | 4¢ | +1pp | $680 | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-win-pgl-astana-g2-kalshi-kxcs2-ast26-g2 |
| MOUZ | 6¢ | — | $486 | kalshi | /markets/will-mouz-win-pgl-astana-mouz-kalshi-kxcs2-ast26-mouz |
| Natus Vincere | 16¢ | +1pp | $333 | kalshi | /markets/will-natus-vincere-win-iem-atlanta-natus-vincere-kalshi-kxcs2-iematl26-navi |
| FUT Esports | 11¢ | +1pp | $284 | kalshi | /markets/will-fut-esports-win-iem-atlanta-fut-esports-kalshi-kxcs2-iematl26-fut |
| Astralis | 3¢ | — | $148 | kalshi | /markets/will-astralis-win-iem-atlanta-astralis-kalshi-kxcs2-iematl26-ast |
| Team Falcons | 33¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-team-falcons-win-cs-asia-championships-team-f-kalshi-kxcs2-asia26-fal |
| The Mongolz | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-mongolz-win-cs-asia-championships-the-mon-kalshi-kxcs2-asia26-mglz |
| PARIVISION | 4¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-parivision-win-cs-asia-championships-parivisi-kalshi-kxcs2-asia26-prv |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | 6 |
| 2026-05-08 | 23 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Vitality +41pp 30→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Team Falcons +25pp 4→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Vitality +20pp 10→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Spirit +15pp 4→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Natus Vincere +13pp 3→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects the probability that Vitality will win BLAST Rivals Season 1, a competitive Counter-Strike tournament. The 37% aggregate probability masks a significant 29-percentage-point gap between venues, with Kalshi pricing at 35% and Polymarket at 64%, suggesting disagreement about Vitality's tournament prospects. The outcome depends on team performance, roster strength relative to competitors, and tournament format. The resolution will occur when BLAST Rivals Season 1 concludes and a winner is officially declared. Key considerations include Vitality's recent competitive record in Counter-Strike, the strength of rival teams in the field, any roster changes before the tournament, and whether recent tournaments indicate upward or downward momentum for the organization.

### Key factors

- Vitality's head-to-head performance against other tournament favorites in recent Counter-Strike competitions
- Official BLAST Rivals Season 1 tournament bracket, seeding, and competitor roster confirmations
- Cross-venue pricing disparity (29pp) suggests material disagreement; one venue may be mispricing relative to recent team performance data
- Trading volume on Kalshi ($7,507 24h) substantially exceeds Polymarket volume, potentially indicating more informed pricing on the venue with deeper liquidity
- Tournament format details (single/double elimination, group stage structure) affecting Vitality's path to victory

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cs2
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cs2

## License

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