# Will Clair Obscur win the Misa Esports vs. Clair Obscur CS2 match

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 10 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cs2game
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.137Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-22

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $30

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Misa Esports | 18¢ | +3pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-misa-esports-win-the-misa-esports-vs-lavked-c-kalshi-kxcs2game-26jun090630mislav-mis |
| Young Ninjas | 42¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-young-ninjas-win-the-young-ninjas-vs-g2-ares-kalshi-kxcs2game-26jun100630yng2a-yn |
| G2 Ares | 45¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-ares-win-the-young-ninjas-vs-g2-ares-cs2-m-kalshi-kxcs2game-26jun100630yng2a-g2a |
| Masked Regime | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-masked-regime-win-the-masked-regime-vs-ground-kalshi-kxcs2game-26jun100430mrgro-mr |
| Ground Zero | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ground-zero-win-the-masked-regime-vs-ground-z-kalshi-kxcs2game-26jun100430mrgro-gro |
| DXA Esports | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dxa-esports-win-the-dxa-esports-vs-ding-cuts-kalshi-kxcs2game-26jun100430dxadin-dxa |
| Ding Cuts | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ding-cuts-win-the-dxa-esports-vs-ding-cuts-cs-kalshi-kxcs2game-26jun100430dxadin-din |
| RUSTEC | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rustec-win-the-rustec-vs-against-all-authorit-kalshi-kxcs2game-26jun100400rustaaa-rust |
| against All authority | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-against-all-authority-win-the-rustec-vs-again-kalshi-kxcs2game-26jun100400rustaaa-aaa |
| Lavked | 70¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lavked-win-the-misa-esports-vs-lavked-cs2-mat-kalshi-kxcs2game-26jun090630mislav-lav |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | 44 |
| 2026-06-08 | 30 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-08 · Lavked −7pp 73→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-08 · Misa Esports +3pp 14→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 29% chance that Clair Obscur defeats Misa Esports in an upcoming Counter-Strike 2 match. The current odds reflect Misa Esports as the favored team, suggesting they have a stronger competitive position or recent form. The probability could shift based on roster changes, recent map performance data, head-to-head records between the teams, and any announced tactical adjustments. The resolution will occur when the match concludes and a winner is determined. Trading volume on this specific contract is minimal, suggesting limited market interest or recent listing, which may affect price stability as more information becomes available or the match approaches.

### Key factors

- Misa Esports is priced as the clear favorite at approximately 71% implied win probability, indicating market confidence in their competitive edge
- Counter-Strike 2 match outcomes are heavily influenced by recent team form, map pool preferences, and head-to-head records, none of which are specified in available market data
- The related contracts show mixed pricing across different CS2 matchups, with some underdogs (Lavked at 75¢) priced much higher than others, suggesting significant uncertainty in competitive positioning
- Zero or minimal 24-hour trading volume on most related contracts indicates thin liquidity and potential difficulty for traders to establish or exit positions at fair prices
- The match outcome is binary and deterministic—it will be objectively resolved once played, leaving no room for ambiguity in settlement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cs2game
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cs2game

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.