# Will MOUZ qualify for the playoffs at 2026 IEM Cologne

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cs2qualifiers
Updated: 2026-06-21T19:20:51.807Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-06

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Falcons | 19¢ | +14pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-team-falcons-qualify-for-the-grand-final-at-2-kalshi-kxcs2qualifiers-26iemcolfin-fal |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 2 |
| 2026-06-14 | 3 |
| 2026-06-20 | 25 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects MOUZ's 42% chance of advancing past the group stage to the playoffs at IEM Cologne 2026. The market assessment appears calibrated around MOUZ's recent competitive standing relative to other tier-1 European and international teams. Key factors influencing this estimate include MOUZ's roster composition and form heading into the event, the strength of competing teams in their potential group, and historical performance at IEM tournaments. The actual group draw and final rosters—typically finalized in the weeks before the event—will likely shift this probability. Resolution depends on MOUZ's performance during the group stage matches, which would occur during the tournament's initial phase.

### Key factors

- MOUZ's current ranking and recent results in international competition relative to expected participants
- The composition of MOUZ's potential group—tougher competition lowers qualification odds, weaker groups raise them
- Recent roster changes or roster stability at MOUZ compared to historical performance trends
- Win rate and head-to-head records against likely group opponents in recent months
- IEM Cologne 2026 format and group stage structure—advancement threshold and number of teams progressing to playoffs

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cs2qualifiers
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cs2qualifiers

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.