# CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

> Luke Bronin leads at 47%, runner-up 41% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ct01-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.479Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-11

## Headline

- Leader: Luke Bronin at 47%
- Runner-up: John Larson at 41%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Bronin | 47¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ct-01-democratic-primary-winner-luke-bronin-polymarket-0x14710adfa9ca2f0450c1710d0080b67d73d6779c0d62df497c6d40f2eba870dd |
| John Larson | 41¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ct-01-democratic-primary-winner-john-larson-polymarket-0x5ffc4b0998e7e63eecf817ac89a9ee4b4c1276452b5e7d4a628ad6b9d0f026b9 |
| Ruth Fortune | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ct-01-democratic-primary-winner-ruth-fortune-polymarket-0xa8e0b798fe68798527a0fb4ad42fb47b367b4c7e80e3f1df26dc9551bc8a86aa |
| Jillian Gilchrest | 3¢ | −21pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ct-01-democratic-primary-winner-jillian-gilchrest-polymarket-0x208c15b7465c469f7a50bd9a9525192408406c088f5bafb1ff18abca8cb5d375 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Luke Bronin | John Larson | Ruth Fortune |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 34 | 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | 46 | 40 | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 47 | 39 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 39 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | — | 41 | 5 |
| 2026-04-28 | 52 | 42 | 20 |
| 2026-04-30 | — | — | 13 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 41 | — |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 40 | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Jillian Gilchrest −21pp 24→3¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 43% probability reflects market expectations for a Democratic primary winner across multiple contests, aggregated from 18 different contracts on Polymarket. The contracts span congressional districts and state-level races, with varying levels of market activity. The probability would likely increase if frontrunner candidates gain fundraising advantages, endorsements from established party figures, or demonstrate polling leads in head-to-head matchups. Conversely, it would decrease if challengers gain ground through grassroots organizing or if unexpected candidates enter races. The primary election dates vary by state and district, ranging from late spring through mid-summer 2026, meaning uncertainty will gradually resolve over the coming months as voting occurs and results are tabulated.

### Key factors

- Current market pricing shows significant variation across individual races, from 16¢ to 80¢, indicating substantial disagreement about likely winners even among the subset of tracked contracts
- Trading volume across these contracts ranges from $625-$816 in 24-hour volume, suggesting moderate but not exceptionally deep liquidity in any single race
- Multiple concurrent races at different electoral levels (congressional districts, state offices) are weighted together in this aggregate, creating exposure to varied political dynamics and regional factors
- No single contract dominates the aggregate, meaning results depend on outcomes across numerous independent elections rather than a single high-stakes race
- The May-June 2026 timeframe means many primaries have not yet occurred, leaving substantial time for candidate positioning, field changes, and shifts in voter preference

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ct01-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ct01-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.